Post bold 2022 predictions

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

People are underestimating Trumpist/America First candidates, most will win their Senate primaries and more than expected will beat incumbent Republicans. They will also practically sweep the open primaries.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

People are underestimating Trumpist/America First candidates, most will win their Senate primaries and more than expected will beat incumbent Republicans. They will also practically sweep the open primaries.

I thought this would be your take:

2022 AZ-SEN ELECTION:
✓Blake Masters (R): 65%
Mark Kelly (D-inc): 30%

I think Masters would win by more than a Brnovich type, but I expect him to win by a ~4% margin, while I would expect Brnovich to win by a ~2% margin.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- Republicans do better than expected in the House, mostly because democratic gerrymanders ended up making more D seats vulnerable in a red wave (although basically all of them will flip back in 2024)
- Populist candidates will win quite a bit of primaries (e.g. Arizona) but will lose a couple high-profile primaries
- Republicans sweep all the competitive Secretary of State races
- Numerous moderate Republican incumbents (or R incumbents who are viewed as insufficiently loyal to Trump) who WEREN'T endorsed against by Trump will still lose their primary to further right challengers.
- Republicans will win by over 8% on the GCB
- Republicans win OR-GOV with a plurality