2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

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Video of Andrew Yang interviewing Marianne Williamson. Per IPR, they discussed the Forward Party, Democratic National Committee, and third parties. The summary said Yang tried to talk her into running for the Forward nomination in 2024 but Williamson was noncommittal.

The Forward Party is shaping up to be another Reform. Efforts to draft other candidates will fail, Yang will jump in himself in 2024 and fail to make an impact, then maybe some Republican or Democrat will use it as a vehicle to spite a successful primary challenger preceding its collapse. It's just the Yang party.

There's 3 different entities that are newish and all are kind of crossing over a bit. Alliance Party and Forward Party are pretty much on the exact same real estate to the point where a "merger" should seriously be in consideration, although the Forward Party has no infrastructure in comparison to the Alliance Party, which is not really national Alliance infrastructure and more a grab-bag of independent state parties' infrastructure, so Alliance gains nothing in a merger except Andrew Yang, his donor list, and the remnants of what he built up in Iowa, New Hamsphire, and New York City. It wouldn't surprise me if we get to 2024 and if Andrew Yang is running as a Forward Party candidate he becomes Alliance's nominee. Then you have the People's Party which are in theory to the left of both of these groups, but seems to be taking the same left independent free thinker stance on issues.

I've been saying Yang/Tulsi will run on a ticket since the beginning of last year. It's inevitable.

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Well, questions made prior are being answered, Cornel West is seeking the Green party endorsement. This primary season just got interesting.

I highly doubt they would endorse him cause of how swampy the Green Party is. Only maybe if he gets a ton of media attention.

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Cornel West wants to abolish NATO. End of discussion.

I'm liking him more and more. May support him if DeSantis wins the primary.

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On leftish semi-household names:

What are the chances that RFK Jr. and/or Marianne Williamson might run third party?

Williamson unlikely, she didn't in 2020 and her lane seems to have been completely dominated by the others-

RFK Jr. would have had a strong chance if not for Cornel West's entrance. He might still do so though. How ironic and ignominious it'd be if he ended up being the People's Party candidate.

Wonder who the People's Party would do otherwise. Guess this isn't Jimmy Dore's year, wondering if he'll ever run.

Ditto for Tulsi Gabbard.

Editorial: why is it that so many of these prominent disaffected progressive-left (dissident left?) figures seem so outlandish and outright compromised compared to past candidates like Ralph Nader? By that I mean holding fringe conspiracy theory beliefs such as anti-vaxx, weirdly conservative positions (such as West praising DeSantis' education policies), and the usual ties to Russia stuff.

Bernie Sanders, Howie Hawkins, and Gloria La Riva seem so much more straightforwardly left-of-mainstream in comparison. Did Jill Stein kick off this trend? Or Cynthia McKinney? Roseanne Barr?

I reckon Marianne will endorse Biden, and RFK Jr will endorse Cornel West.

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RFK Jr and Cornel West have no transferable voters, as Jr represents the remaining conservadems left and Cornel attracts left wing and an incalculable amount of disaffected black voters. They are diametrically opposed outside of wanting aid to Ukraine to stop, as even with that they have different plans for it.

I actually disagree. I think RFK Jr will end up doing better than expected with black voters in the primary, and some of those those transfer to West.
Black democrats are the most likely democrats to be anti-vaxx, and RFK Jr has placed a lot of emphasis on reaching out to black voters, even pissing off his conservative followers when he voiced support for affirmative action.

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RFK Jr and Cornel West have no transferable voters, as Jr represents the remaining conservadems left and Cornel attracts left wing and an incalculable amount of disaffected black voters. They are diametrically opposed outside of wanting aid to Ukraine to stop, as even with that they have different plans for it.

I actually disagree. I think RFK Jr will end up doing better than expected with black voters in the primary, and some of those those transfer to West.
Black democrats are the most likely democrats to be anti-vaxx, and RFK Jr has placed a lot of emphasis on reaching out to black voters, even pissing off his conservative followers when he voiced support for affirmative action.

Does polling or any evidence suggest such a strategy is working? Jr’s supporters skew old, rich, and white who were probably anti-Sanders primary voters. So far I don’t see the energy that Jr’s virtue signaling is working.

Well I thought it was interesting that he polled at 20% in South Carolina while he's polling in single digits in New Hampshire.
I haven't seen any racial crosstabs for the dem primary so far.

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He'll barely get any votes. He'd have a better shot running for the Libertarian nomination.

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Being an anti-vaxxer makes him unpalatable for most Democrats.

RFK Jr. has explicitly directed his entire campaign (including his comments on vaccination and skepticism of medical consensus) at the most Democratic constituency in the entire country.

If he's going to drop any current supporters (besides those who confused him with his father or are just casting a protest vote), it's not going to be because of his most famous position, anti-vaccination, which they've already accepted by supporting him to this point. It's going to be because they don't share his lesser known positions on things like environmental racism, immigration, medical racism, police reform, reparations for slavery, free birth control, and mandatory diversity training.

At the end of the day, a strong RFK Jr. campaign exacerbates Biden's problems with Democratic-leaning minority voters. Even if he pulls about evenly from both candidates in polls now, if he gets down to 5% in November 2024, that will all be at Biden's expense. We've moved past the pretty ridiculous question of whether he can cost Biden the nomination, but he can definitely cost Biden his re-election in a close race.

That is true. While right now his more right-coded views are newsworthy because he's in the dem primary, if the right views him as a threat I can easily see his support for immigration, reparations and affirmative action for example cause his numbers to crater with Republicans.
After all his far-left views haven't been very publciized yet while by now everyone knows about him being anti-vax.

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...why

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ahahaha
https://twitter.com/semafor/status/1710411259265315172?s=20

LMAOOOOOOOOOOO

Ah, when republican attempted ratf***ing backfires.....

In all seriousness though I don't think this will end up happening, b/c as we all know (or at least the smart ones know), RFK Jr. is "running" to help trump win. If he sees that he is really pulling more votes from trump than Biden, he will drop out. Hilarious to see all the time and effort Bannon and the rest of the republican fascists put into recruiting him blow up in their faces though.

An RFK-funded poll shows him taking more from Trump than Biden. He also said on Theo Von's podcast he takes more from Trump than Biden.
He blamed Trump for the vaccines and has said he really dislikes both Trump and Biden, but what if he's actually secretly trying to help Biden lmao.

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Here's an excerpt from the Vanity Fair article the favorite son idea was proposed in.

But there is another option. That is: No Labels makes good on its pledge to ensure that Trump is not elected. By denying him victory in one or more of the key swing states. By putting a Republican No Labels candidate on the ballot, but only in those pivotal states. Imagine a favorite son or daughter approach. In other words: backing a willing Republican who is particularly popular in a battleground state. For example: Pat McCrory in North Carolina. Doug Ducey in Arizona. Brian Kemp in Georgia. Mitt Romney in Nevada. Paul Ryan in Wisconsin. Tom Ridge in Pennsylvania. John Engler in Michigan. Or how about Liz Cheney in any or all of them? You know she’d be game to push a big stick into Trump’s electoral spokes.

LOL at Paul Ryan being popular in Wisconsin or Pat McCrory being popular in North Carolina.

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Okay guess that was just a popular misconception of her

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/is-green-party-candidate-jill-stein-anti-vaccine/

Yeah Jill Stein was bombarded by an insane amount of misinfo by the dems in 2016.

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Do we have any speculation at all on who RFK would pick as VP?

I only ask because a lot of states, RFK can't collect ballots until he has a running mate. Also, his website is extremely good on the ballot access section.

https://www.kennedy24.com/ballot-access

Probably Tulsi Gabbard, or Jesse Ventura, maybe someone like Dave Smith if he decides to go the libertarian route.

Jesse Ventura is very pro COVID vaccine, he was featured in PSA's here in MN urging people to get the jab, I highly doubt he runs with Jr.

He introduced Kennedy at a rally today and endorsed him
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVKpfz9594U

Ventura would be the perfect running mate for RFK Jr.
More celebrity, political experience and an amazing attack dog that is ngl way better at rhetoric than RFK Jr is.