NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

You'd expect Biden to be losing Wisconsin too with numbers like these

Not necessarily.  It's a very consistent trend that Biden's holding up fine with Northern secular white people but in freefall with Hispanic people and probably doing worse than 2020 with black and white people in the South to some degree. 

I suspect Wisconsin is just another mirage like in 2016 and 2020, but we’ll see. I could see WWC being Biden’s best demographic relative to 2020, though immigration and inflation concerns likely hurt here.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There's no way Biden loses NE-02 in a competitive election. It was Biden +6 in 2020 and is trending strongly left. It's more on the same level as Virginia or Minnesota than MI/WI/PA.

Trends don’t always continue. Polling suggests Trump is improving the most in urban areas and least in rural areas, possibly because of the housing situation.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There's no way Biden loses NE-02 in a competitive election. It was Biden +6 in 2020 and is trending strongly left. It's more on the same level as Virginia or Minnesota than MI/WI/PA.

Trends don’t always continue. Polling suggests Trump is improving the most in urban areas and least in rural areas, possibly because of the housing situation.

That's because urban areas are racially diverse and rural areas are not. Omaha is not particularly diverse. The district is around 70% NH White and is 41% college educated.

Most polling has Biden improving most among college-educated Whites and holding pretty steady among non-college educated Whites. They are probably around 80% of the electorate. It's not going to trend right.

The only poll that we have is a Democratic internal that usually leans left showing Trump up by 3 in NE02. Also polling still shows Biden losing ground with whites, but not anywhere near as much as with minority voters.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

So what's the standard for posting polls here, Likely Voters or Registered Voters when both are available? I would think it would be Likely Voters but it seems to vary by the whim  of the original poster. The difference between a terrible poll for Biden in MI (Trump +7 RV) and a toss up race (Biden+1 LV).

Likely voter screens should only be used close to the election.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They need to poll New Mexico with these AZ/NV numbers. Could actually be decisive if Biden holds up in the Rust Belt and NE02

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They need to poll New Mexico with these AZ/NV numbers. Could actually be decisive if Biden holds up in the Rust Belt and NE02

If Biden wins the rust belt Trump isn’t winning NM.

Biden could collapse with Hispanics