Did less in-person campaigning hurt Biden specifically in the swing states?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

In 2020, we had a historically large PV-EC gap. It seems like while Biden improved a lot in safe states (such as Kentucky, Oklahoma, Colorado, most of New England, etc.) while Trump held up much better in the swing states. I wonder if some of this discrepancy could be attributed to Trump campaigning more in swing states than Biden did.

n 2022, it looks like a lot of the gap has narrowed, and if the polls are correct for 2024, the PV-EC gap will also be nearly nonexistent in 2024. In 2022, it's possible that Democrats started campaigning more in swing seats, leading to less of a Republican outperformance in swing seats. In this sense, it's possible that Democrats didn't actually outperform in swing districts/states 2022, but Republicans actually outperformed in 2020, which was used as a baseline.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There's probably some truth to that, but one thing that gives me pause is that Biden's people weren't doing in-person campaigning in safe blue states either, yet they still swung leftward. I'm not sure.

My point is that in swing states, Trump campaigned but Biden didn't, allowing him do to better relatively in those states. In Safe Red and Safe Blue states, neither campaigned, so neither person had an advantage in this respect and the fundamentals decided those states.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There's probably some truth to that, but one thing that gives me pause is that Biden's people weren't doing in-person campaigning in safe blue states either, yet they still swung leftward. I'm not sure.

It appears that turnout in safe blue states went up relative to turnout in safe red states, because they made more COVID modifications to voting on average.

Could this explain some of the state-national poll divergence? This time, it might be safe red states that turn out more compared to safe blue states, even if the margins in each states don't shift as much, allowing Trump to gain in the PV.