Why is Trump still competitive against Biden after everything that's happened?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Impeachments and January 6 doesn't affect people's lives. A poor economy does. Trump is the perfect candidate to make the election about the economy. Trump is also the candidate that will neutralize the salience of abortion the most.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

2. The economy is not poor, we have record low unemployment and have avoided a major recession.

3. To the extent there are still problems with the economy, they are the direct fault of Donald Trump,
so how is he the perfect candidate to make the election about the economy?

The economy is poor because real wages have fallen. More pressingly, the fundamentals are very weak, with banks failing by the day, and tons more at risk due to unrealized losses from the high interest rates which will eventually cause a financial crisis.

Most of the economy's problems are a direct consequence of the low interest rates of the Fed dating up to 20 years ago, and Powell is now trying to deal with the inflation that arose as a consequence. However, in doing so, he has to jack up interest rates very high, which will cause a recession. It doesn't matter that Biden doesn't have much to do with it. He's in power when this is happening, so voters will associate it with Biden in their heads.

I am skeptical of the idea that Trump is competent enough to single-handedly end democracy, and I think that is apart of why people who aren’t hardcore Trump fanatics are willing to give him a second chance and don’t see an urge to vote Biden again. Trump is seen at worst as an insufferable Twitter troll rather than a dangerous demagogue to a lot of these swing voters.

You said it well here. If Trump were competent, I'd be scared of him, but he's not. Biden and DeSantis both really scare me because of how competent they are (Biden drained half the SPR; DeSantis's fight on Disney makes me uneasy).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

2. The economy is not poor, we have record low unemployment and have avoided a major recession.

3. To the extent there are still problems with the economy, they are the direct fault of Donald Trump,
so how is he the perfect candidate to make the election about the economy?

The economy is poor because real wages have fallen. More pressingly, the fundamentals are very weak, with banks failing by the day, and tons more at risk due to unrealized losses from the high interest rates which will eventually cause a financial crisis.

Most of the economy's problems are a direct consequence of the low interest rates of the Fed dating up to 20 years ago, and Powell is now trying to deal with the inflation that arose as a consequence. However, in doing so, he has to jack up interest rates very high, which will cause a recession. It doesn't matter that Biden doesn't have much to do with it. He's in power when this is happening, so voters will associate it with Biden in their heads.

I am skeptical of the idea that Trump is competent enough to single-handedly end democracy, and I think that is apart of why people who aren’t hardcore Trump fanatics are willing to give him a second chance and don’t see an urge to vote Biden again. Trump is seen at worst as an insufferable Twitter troll rather than a dangerous demagogue to a lot of these swing voters.

You said it well here. If Trump were competent, I'd be scared of him, but he's not.

I am not getting into all of this, but I absolutely must point out that there has not been a meaningful bank failure in like half a year, and there are few if any signs of bank contagion outside of those that were heavily invested in the tech sector, and with cryptocurrency nonsense in particular. I don't know how old you are, but as someone who was 19 during the 2008 market crash, I can assure you, this is nothing.

PacWest Bancorp was about to fail just a few weeks ago; they had a merger to avoid it. Banks are going deeper and deeper underwater as their bond values drop, and eventually their housing collateral value drops too.

The 2008 market crash didn't feel like one for a long time too. GDP growth was 3.4% in Q2 2007 for example.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

The fundamentals favor Republicans by a mile. Poor economy, low approval ratings, etc. Trump will underperform fundamentals, but probably not by enough to lose.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I can't imagine how you can be undecided and go vote for Trump in the end.

People who simply prefer the economy in 2019 to the one in 2023.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I can't imagine how you can be undecided and go vote for Trump in the end.

People who simply prefer the economy in 2019 to the one in 2023.

We won't go back to the economy in 2019 whether Trump is re-elected or not. We're in a post-pandemic world that has changed a lot. There are a whole host of other risks that come with sending him back to the White House that I'd rather not live through.

We probably eventually will, the probably is that we're trying to pop a bubble caused by artificially low interest rates for the last few decades. The 2019 economy was high on the bubble and thus felt good.

However, what matters is what the electorate thinks. They associate Trump with 2019 and Biden with today.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

The fundamentals favor Republicans by a mile. Poor economy, low approval ratings, etc. Trump will underperform fundamentals, but probably not by enough to lose.

Same thing was said in 2022. Didn’t happen. If things are even slightly better or stay the same, Biden cleans house and Dems take back the house. Republicans wish-casting things to deteriorate just to attempt to gain power back will backfire hard.

The GOP’s problems are a dime a dozen not the least of which is a ground same with mail ins and early voting.

In all seriousness, say what you will about Floridas voting methods, but at least we’re quick. Even if the results suck.  

If things stay the same, Biden probably loses or ties the popular vote, given where polling is. What's wishcasting is expecting polls to somehow move towards Biden.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again. 

Correct! I really wish the average Republican could see this. Trump has destroyed that party.

Biden has destroyed his party as well. He's another Bush/Carter.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Nope:

Any analysis of how the indictments are affecting the primary without including that Trump is only growing his lead over his opponents is incomplete.

Funny thing is, I actually wasn't referring to the primary but everyone seemed to assume I was. The people I'm talking about don't vote in GOP primaries.

I only have anecdotes, but I have a lot of anecdotes. The sentiment I'm hearing about Trump from young men of all races tells me Something Is Going On.

Speaking of anecdotes, I was Jorgensen 2020 but Trump 2024. Anecdotally, it does seem like Biden is losing a lot more support than Trump. The people who care about Trump indictments at all already voted for Biden in 2020, from what I'm seeing in this forum.

The indictments are just giving me a gigantic yawn, just like the Hunter Biden story. If Trump really gets arrested, that's a different story, and I'll do whatever I can to ensure Biden stays as far from office as possible in that case, since it means that he has successfully gotten to the level of authoritarian dictators.