Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 31, 2024, 03:57:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ^
#1
Yes >90%		  
#2
Yes >80%		  
#3
Yes >70%		  
#4
Yes >60%		  
#5
Yes >50%		  
#6
No >50%		  
#7
No >60%		  
#8
No >70%		  
#9
No >80%		  
#10
No >90%		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 96

Author Topic: Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)  (Read 11405 times)
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« on: August 08, 2023, 12:03:35 PM »
My guess is no 62-38, but I could be very wrong.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2023, 12:17:33 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 08, 2023, 12:11:21 PM
The average of our poll (assigning the midpoint of each range, i.e. votes in an "over 50%" group are counted as 55% for that side) currently shows No winning with 57.3%.
No usually outperforms polling in these ballot measures and thus is my default assumption, even though it's not impossible that this time is different.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2023, 06:50:00 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2023, 06:53:02 PM by riverwalk3 »
Looking more like a 15-20 point win for No rather than 24 like I initially predicted.

Yes is getting crushed in the East Ohio working class areas that are rapidly trending right.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2023, 06:57:40 PM »
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2023, 07:04:31 PM »
Tip: Polls usually underestimate "No" on any change ballot issue.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2023, 07:06:30 PM »
Quote from: Forumlurker on August 08, 2023, 07:05:34 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 08, 2023, 06:59:34 PM
No one actually thought this would succeed, right?
No but I'm bored without any other elections to watch right now so I am pretending its not an obvious conclusion.
I'm still interested in the final margin. 10, 15, 20, or 25?
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2023, 07:09:33 PM »
Quote from: MaxQue on August 08, 2023, 07:08:14 PM
Quote from: riverwalk3 on August 08, 2023, 07:06:30 PM
Quote from: Forumlurker on August 08, 2023, 07:05:34 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 08, 2023, 06:59:34 PM
No one actually thought this would succeed, right?
No but I'm bored without any other elections to watch right now so I am pretending its not an obvious conclusion.
I'm still interested in the final margin. 10, 15, 20, or 25?

No votes in Akron yet, so I would assume above 20.
A bigger factor is that most of the votes so far are early, and it will narrow down significantly. Ohio's earliest reported votes are usually pretty representative in geography, but not in vote type.

Usually the Republican gains 20+ points from the early votes (at 30-40% reported) to the final result. Around 70% reported is when the results start becoming representative.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2023, 07:13:28 PM »

Official now
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2023, 07:15:02 PM »
Even though it's still the early vote, Yes shouldn't be currently down in so many rural counties if it were to be competitive.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2023, 07:17:23 PM »
Summit county is in, and it's failing by the exact same margin as Cuyahoga county, and by a larger margin than Lucas county. No is also currently leading 70 to 30 in Delaware County. Very brutal beating in the suburbs.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2023, 07:20:21 PM »
Quote from: Forumlurker on August 08, 2023, 07:18:07 PM
If Pike County's estimated vote isn't an error by the NYT, its at 79% with Yes leading 59-40. Vance won this with 70%.
Looks like around a 20 point win for "No" if the early results are correct. Although the county shifts will not be uniform; it seems like the Ancestrally Democratic areas are going hard for No, as well as the suburbs.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2023, 07:24:46 PM »
Quote from: PSOL on August 08, 2023, 07:24:13 PM
Abortion is not a winning issue for the GOP.

Democrats are making a mistake not prioritizing it as the only ace they have.
I agree. Biden is making a huge error by talking about "Bidenomics" when the economy is still bad. Democrats limited losses in 2022 by switching the subject.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2023, 07:27:11 PM »
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2023, 08:19:53 PM »
Looking more like No +10. I didn't expect it to narrow by this much.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2023, 08:41:21 PM »
Ashtabula 52-48 No now.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2023, 09:45:10 PM »
The outstanding vote is disproportionately Cuyahoga and Lucas. No should gain slightly.
Logged
The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

P
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2023, 10:35:07 PM »
Butler County flipped to Yes.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 15 queries.