2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[k120]

How likely is Lightfoot to lose her job? Haven't been paying a lot of attention here, but seems she's headed for defeat due to a controversial performance?

I'd give her about a 15% chance of being reelected. Nobody likes her. She might luck out and get a runoff opponent who's even less popular, but even then, she's in for a tough fight.

[k120]

Johnson has the clear momentum. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a “silent” Vallas vote though. Being a Vallas voter might not be cool but I know a lot of north siders are concerned about crime.

Trust me, the north siders who are concerned about crime are not silent about it. Polls are showing Vallas with around 40-45%, which is already a pretty large chunk of the city. He'll probably get a bit more than that, but I'm willing to bet that he's pretty much at his ceiling now.

I don't think aldermanic endorsements matter very much at all.

This is correct. If aldermen were that influential, you'd think that Sophia King and Roderick Sawyer would've done better, at least in their own wards.

[k120]

While the lesser evil probably won out here, I just don't understand why Chuy was unable to gain any momentum.

Chuy didn't really reach out to the people who supported him before. He allowed Brandon Johnson to run and he allowed a whole bunch of organizations and elected officials to endorse Brandon. I attended multiple forums that Chuy was invited to and didn't show up, though all the other candidates calling themselves progressive did.

[k120]

2.I'm not sure how Paul Vallas fits this definition of a neoliberal. To my neoliberal thinking (using the defintion you provided) he's simply a centrist mostly 'good government' capable but not perfect administrator of large government institutions who sometimes has an unfortunate habit of using (false) right wing memes when campaigning.

NUPES Enjoyer's definition certainly applies to Vallas, at least on the issue of education. His whole career has been about turning public school systems into competitive markets.