New Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom/Selzer Iowa Poll out on Monday

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With the Iowa Caucuses less than three months away, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the 2024 election cycle will reveal where likely Republican caucusgoers stand on 10 candidates for president — and whether those candidates have lost or gained ground.

The candidates are:

Texas businessman Ryan Binkley
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson
Former Vice President Mike Pence
Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott
Former President Donald Trump

When will the new Iowa Poll results be published?

The first results from the new Iowa Poll will be published online at 5 a.m. CDT Monday at DesMoinesRegister.com and on NBC News. The results will also be printed in Monday's Des Moines Register.

A Register exclusive since 1943, the Iowa Poll is a closely watched indicator of presidential candidate strength in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. The Iowa Republican caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15, 2024.

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/10/27/iowa-poll-des-moines-register-nbc-news-mediacom-2024-republican-presidential-candidates/71327249007/

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My guess:

46 Trump (+4)
12 DeSantis (-7)
  9 Haley (+3)
  7 Scott (-2)
  5 Vivek (+1)
  4 Binkley (+4)
  4 Burgum (+2)
  4 Christie (-1)
  3 Pence (-3)
  1 Hutchinson (+1)
  1 None of these (-1)
  4 Undecided (-1)

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I wonder if Selzer will do a last-minute redistribution of Pence's support to other candidates, after he dropped out yesterday ...

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My guess:

46 Trump (+4)
12 DeSantis (-7)
  9 Haley (+3)
  7 Scott (-2)
  5 Vivek (+1)
  4 Binkley (+4)
  4 Burgum (+2)
  4 Christie (-1)
  3 Pence (-3)
  1 Hutchinson (+1)
  1 None of these (-1)
  4 Undecided (-1)

What makes you believe Binkley will jump to 4%? Has he been advertising hard in Iowa? I know basically nothing about him and I don't think he has any name recognition.

Edit: Just saw your other thread.

He has advertised a lot in Iowa in the last 2 months, about 4 million $.

It might not be enough for 4%, but he could be at 2% or 3% now.

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Selzer Iowa poll actual result:

Trump 43
DeSantis 16
Haley 16
Scott 7
Christie 4
Ramaswamy 4
Burgum 3
Hutchinson 1

You were more accurate than I was.