🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Elon Musk tried to interfere in the upcoming state elections in Bayern and Hessen:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1707758153977204846

Germany replied that they are saving lives:

https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1707783245171978250

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Muskoid is a complete moron but this isn't election interference.

Well, it certainly gets a lot of press here. And we are just a week away from major state elections in Bavaria with 13 million people and Hesse with 7 million people. That's a quarter of Germany voting next Sunday. If he's not interfering in our elections, why would he then post "Is the German public aware of this?" Why would an American post this? I think he has a far-right agenda that extends to Europe.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Here is what the polls have to say about Bavaria and Hesse - which are voting next Sunday:

Bayern




Hessen

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

When you look at the charts and changes from the previous state elections in both states, it's pretty clear that voters are going to punish the governing parties in Berlin (SPD-Greens-FDP) and reward far-right parties such as the AfD and to some extend anti-establishment parties such as the Free Voters (in Bavaria). The SPD here in Hessen with Nancy Faeser also did herself no favor by calling for refugee voting rights, a position which is only popular within a small part of the party. It is much more popular with the Green Party voters, which is the main reason the SPD will continue losing voters (along with the Berlin government being unpopular) to the Greens.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The tragic events in Israel and Gaza have overshadowed the fact that tomorrow, important state elections will be held here in Germany.

I wonder if the terrorist attacks will have an impact on the voting... which is almost impossible to measure at this late point in time (4 in ten voters have already cast their ballots early via post).

If patrys benefit from this escalation, it could be the AfD or the Left.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

Your analysis looks reasonable: I think the Green Party will keep 4 of their 5 Munich seats. The 5th one was a tie in 2018, and with the Greens down slightly in the polls, they could lose this seat. I am not sure if the Freie Wähler will win any seats, it will depend if they gain ground as much as the polls say, or if voters will go to the AfD instead.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The tragic events in Israel and Gaza have overshadowed the fact that tomorrow, important state elections will be held here in Germany.

I wonder if the terrorist attacks will have an impact on the voting... which is almost impossible to measure at this late point in time (4 in ten voters have already cast their ballots early via post).

If patrys benefit from this escalation, it could be the AfD or the Left.

I strongly doubt this will have any impact, foreign policy is rarely a deciding issue in German elections, not on the federal level and even less at the state level.

You are right, it shouldn't have a measurable impact.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My buest guess:

Bayern

35% CSU (-2)
16% Greens (-2)
16% AfD (+6)
14% FW (+2)
  8% SPD (-2)
  4% FDP (-1)
  1% Linke (-2)
  1% BP
  1% ÖDP
  4% Others

CSU-FW will continue.

Hessen

32% CDU (+5)
19% AfD (+6)
17% Greens (-3)
15% SPD (-5)
  5% FW (+2)
  4% FDP (-3)
  3% Linke (-3)
  5% Others

CDU-Greens will continue.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

In the Bayern state election today, the local voting law gives the voters more powers compared to Budnestag elections: a voter can vote for a district candidate directly and cast a party vote. This is the same as for the Bundestag. But the major difference is that in Bayern, if your district candidate does not win the seat, your vote is not wasted. In Bayern, the district vote and party vote gets added up and as a result both votes determine the overall number of proportional seats for a party. Not only that, even the party vote in Bayern gives more power to voters: unlike in Bundestag elections, voters can vote for a candidate that is placed somewhere down on the party list. If a lot of voters are voting for this candidate, this candidate can be elevated up the list and elected. It's a sort of preferential voting. On the other hand, Hessen's voting system is very similar to the Bundestag elections. There is a 5 percent-threshold in both states.

The last polling stations close at around 18 o'clock. Results are expected around midnight, but trends will be available by 19 or 20 o'clock.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

From the Bayrischer Rundfunk:

Postal voting record is emerging

Bavaria is voting - but not just today, but actually for a good month now: Anyone who would rather vote in peace at home has been able to apply for postal voting documents in the past few weeks. According to the state returning officer, almost 38 percent of eligible voters had ballot papers issued with postal voting documents ten days ago - significantly more than at the same time before the 2018 state election (29.5 percent).

This marks a record postal vote in a Bavarian state election. In Munich, for example, according to estimates by the district administration department, up to 60 percent of those eligible to vote could make use of the option to vote by post. Everyone else has time to go to the polling station today from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

Your analysis looks reasonable: I think the Green Party will keep 4 of their 5 Munich seats. The 5th one was a tie in 2018, and with the Greens down slightly in the polls, they could lose this seat. I am not sure if the Freie Wähler will win any seats, it will depend if they gain ground as much as the polls say, or if voters will go to the AfD instead.

I am pretty sure that at least Aiwanger wins his Stimmkreis in Landshut.

He might win in his Landshut constituency - if the polling trends turn into reality (CSU down slightly, Freie Wähler up slightly).

19 of the 91 constituencies were within 10 percent in the previous election:

https://www.landtagswahl2018.bayern.de/Bewerber%20mit%20Erststimmenmehrheit.html

If you sort by "Abstand" (winning margin) in the right column, you can see the closest districts.

Landshut was CSU +2.8 and Aiwanger (FW) second.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Results:

https://landtagswahl2023.bayern.de/eingangsmeldung.html

https://wahlen.hessen-ltw23.23degrees.eu/wk/00000000000/overview

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Results:

https://landtagswahl2023.bayern.de/eingangsmeldung.html

https://wahlen.hessen-ltw23.23degrees.eu/wk/00000000000/overview

No results in Bayern yet, but Hessen has 3000 of 7000 polling stations counted.

AfD is over 20%, but it is presumably rural areas and no big city polls yet.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

There was also a runoff election for mayor in the East-German city of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, a city with once 80.000 people, but now just 40.000. It is in Saxony-Anhalt, in a coal mining and chemical plants area. A lot of people left after the 1980s.

The CDU candidate won the runoff today by 54% to 46% against the AfD candidate.

https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/dessau/bitterfeld/stichwahl-oberbuergermeister-bitterfeld-wolfen-106.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

German posters - would it be fair to say that the AfD would be polling a fair bit higher in Bavaria were it not for the existence of FW as a viable option, or are their voting bases too distinct for that to be the case?

You are correct: the Freie Wähler are a protest party and the AfD would otherwise receive a better result. But it's also the CSU that is appealing to AfD voters. These 3 parties compete for the so-called Stammtisch-vote (populist right-wing pub or beer tent voters).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

In Bayern, the CSU received about 0.2% less than during the 2018 vote.

But in terms of seats, it remained unchanged.

Because the overall size of the Landtag declined by 2 seats, the CSU actually has more power compared to 2018 because their share of seats increased.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My buest guess:

Bayern

35% CSU (-2)
16% Greens (-2)
16% AfD (+6)
14% FW (+2)
  8% SPD (-2)
  4% FDP (-1)
  1% Linke (-2)
  1% BP
  1% ÖDP
  4% Others

CSU-FW will continue.

Hessen

32% CDU (+5)
19% AfD (+6)
17% Greens (-3)
15% SPD (-5)
  5% FW (+2)
  4% FDP (-3)
  3% Linke (-3)
  5% Others

CDU-Greens will continue.

My guess wasn't so bad after all.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Maps:



In Bayern, CSU, FW and AfD are parties of the rural areas.

Greens, SPD and FDP are parties of the urban areas (Großstädte).

In Hessen, the same - but the SPD is about as strong (or weak) in rural areas as it is in urban areas. The Linke is also a more urban party.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'd be very interested in seeing an FW vs. AfD map. Wonder what the pattern would be like.

See below (or now, above).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Scholzomat's party has been eliminated from the German election map:



The map shows which party would win constituencies in the next election, based on current polling. CDU-CSU, AfD and Greens would win all seats. SPD, FDP and Linke win zero.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Scholzomat's party has been eliminated from the German election map:



The map shows which party would win constituencies in the next election, based on current polling. CDU-CSU, AfD and Greens would win all seats. SPD, FDP and Linke win zero.

That´s Wahlkreisprognose though, you should take these "polls" always with a huuuge grain of salt, they always have really high numbers for AfD.

And nope, that´s the "Eurotrend" for the European Elections next year, not for the next federal election.

Do you think there will be a big difference between EU and Bundestag results (or polling)?

I don't think so. There is no denying that SPD is only half of what it was in the last election.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I also like how clearly you can still see the borders of West- and Eastgermany.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Is it a mistake, or is the Wahlkreisprognose showing the AfD winning two or three south Hamburg constituencies? I don't think it's possible.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

Yes. But it still seems crazy they would give AfD a few districts in Hamburg for example.

I am not familiar with previous results in Hamburg, but the AfD gets no more than 5-10 percent there, so how can they be ahead in some?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

I mixed it up, because Wahlkreisprognose in German translates to constituency projection, but in fact they are Landkreise (districts or counties). In EU elections, which this map is apparently about, there are no constituencies like there are in Bundestag elections.