Safe Trump.
Perhaps not by margin, but I am absolutely certain Trump wins it.
We will literally see the whole or almost the whole RGV flip red.
It will be perhaps the most significant and thorough political realignment since Appalachia went full R in 2000.
And just like that one, it will not be reversed any time soon. In fact things will just get more and more grim for Ds as Hispanics continue to assimilate more and more into "white America." Turns out maybe "demographics are destiny" was right, it just failed to account for the M. Night Shyamalan style twist that Hispanics would turn to the Republican side in the end. Although honestly, considering the exact same thing happened to Irish/Italians/etc. in the past, it really shouldn't have been surprising in the slightest. We were naive fools to ever dream otherwise. Texas and Florida are completely off the table for Democrats for the foreseeable future, Nevada will likely become a titanium lean R state, New Mexico a pure toss-up, and Arizona's fate will depend on whether the shift in the white suburbanite vote can keep up with the opposing shift in the Hispanic working class vote.
The war to decide the next political realignment and, consequently, the next political era of the United States, was always going to be decided by Hispanic voters at the end of the day. And it seems clear now that they are going to give the edge to the GOP. Democrats are going to be flailing in the political wilderness for a while like we did in the 1980s (except for the ironic fact that our core base will be what was then the GOP's core base -- white educated voters), until the next Clinton/Obama comes along who can get people to cross over to vote D again.
Turns out we won the battle but lost the war in 2020. Turns out, by god, maybe BRTD was right all along about idpol bulls--t like "Latinx" being absolutely toxic cancer. Turns out maybe people care more about how much their groceries cost than gender affirming care or whatever the f--k nonsense "progressives" are endlessly rambling about on Twitter.
We did this to ourselves. We have no one to blame but ourselves. There will need to be a serious soul-searching and reckoning after the worst human being on the face of the Earth manages to win the biggest Republican landslide in November since 1988.
This is a well thought out post, I'd argue that assimilating into "White America" does tend to turn people to the Republican camp. Look at the turn of the century : those immigrants were Democrats until their kids assimilated and now their descendants are heavily Republican (outside of college educated women and like super urban people).
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