What would it take for California to vote Republican again?

[Ragnaroni]

First of all, the votes in 2020 weren't very good for the Republican camp :
Biden : 63.44% with 11'110'639 votes
Trump : 34.30% with 6'006'518 votes.
The state hasn't voted Republican since 1988 and that was with a margin of 300k votes with a "Ronald Reagan 2.0" type candidate (George H.W Bush). The state is run by a Democrat trifecta and has been since 2011 IIRC. In the House, the Republicans are on a constant losing streak : they haven't taken back a seat from 1994 to 2020 (when 2 seats in Orange flipped red). The last Republican senator was Seymour in 1992. 

Even the state's demographic situation has the deck agaisnt the Republicans : heavily urban (L.A, S.F, S.D and more), stealing from Wikipedia here :
Hispanic or Latino 39.4%   
 White (non-Hispanic)   38.3%   
 Asian (non-Hispanic) 17.0%   
 African American (non-Hispanic)   6.4%   
 Native American (non-Hispanic)   1.3%   
 Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic)   0.7%.
Usually non whites tend to vote Democratic while whites tend to vote Republican (oversimplication but it applies here).    

Only guess I could come up with is : high turnout in rural areas + running up margins in urban areas (not winning just doing better) and a severly unpopular incumbent with a nasty case of the recessionary periods.

Let's discuss

[Ragnaroni]

In a presidential election?  A realignment where the Hispanic working class votes just like the white working class is the most plausible scenario.

Yup, I meant presidental elections. That would have to be a large realignment for that to work, right?

[Ragnaroni]

CA is trending Republican. It was one of only a few states to swing to the right in 2020, and in 2022, both Padilla and Newsom (especially Newsom) really underperformed (particularly in SoCal, it seems). And of course (again, mostly in SoCal), the GOP has done decently in House races in 2020 and 2022 ("decently," of course, being a very relative term - in and of itself, 11 out of 52 seats is hardly commendable, but given the circumstances, it definitely is).

Of course, it's still a long way to go from being even a purple state. That said, say climate change has extreme effects not too long from now, if the coast went underwater, it'd definitely make CA much more competitive (I'm not counting on it, of course, and should it happen, political ramifications would be the least of my concerns, given that I live near coastal CA).

OK, I did NOT expect a swing to the right for California. NoCal is way more liberal than SoCal is, I believe there are more Hispanics in SoCal too. So a rightward swing mainly due to SoCal isn't too surprising. California has a long way to go to get "lean Dem" let alone purple lmao. 11/52 is abysmal, however in 2020 marked the first time the CAGOP gained seats since 1998. In fact, upon checking, those measly 11 seats are now 12 seats. Not much but 2 increases in a row isn't usual (the opposite has been the norm since that 1998 date, a decline from 24 seats).
Sorry for the late reply, I'm still getting used to this forum and I don't get notified for posts on threads I make lol!

[Ragnaroni]

The same thing it'd take for North Dakota, Kansas, and Wyoming to vote Democratic.

So Republican California in 2284?

[Ragnaroni]

CA is trending Republican. It was one of only a few states to swing to the right in 2020, and in 2022, both Padilla and Newsom (especially Newsom) really underperformed (particularly in SoCal, it seems). And of course (again, mostly in SoCal), the GOP has done decently in House races in 2020 and 2022 ("decently," of course, being a very relative term - in and of itself, 11 out of 52 seats is hardly commendable, but given the circumstances, it definitely is).

CA is trending mildly R but presidential to midterm year comparisons aren’t a good indicator of this. Not that surprised Newsom “underperformed” tbh, although he held up better in the Bay Area than I would’ve expected

Yeah, according to Wikipedia's helpful "swing" map (I'm not fully sure if it's swing from 2018 to 2022 or 2021 to 2022 - I guess I could find out, but too lazy to), two of the three counties to swing left were in the Bay Area - Contra Costa and Marin (Marin's is especially impressive since it already CA's 2nd bluest county and routinely gives the Democrats very massive margins). The third to swing to the left was rural Inyo County, on the state's eastern border, which for whatever reason has really been trending leftward of late (it was one of the most surprising Trump-Biden counties in the state, going from Trump+13 to voting for Biden very narrowly - with no growth or demographic indicators that would explain such a swing).

Inyo is bizarre. Though Alpine and Mono have swung left since 2000, could be this for Inyo. The Bay Area is unsurprising, it's more surprising that only 2 swung left instead of way more. Looking at the 2020 election wiki, it seems that it might be from 2018 to 2022 maybe? The one you're talking about. There was a large swing in Imperial county and a smaller swing in Los Angeles county while the rest of SoCal swung left, San Francisco according to this swung right, don't believe this.

[Ragnaroni]

CA is trending mildly R

Based on what, exactly? Biden's performance in 2020 improved by two points on Clinton's performance in 2016 in California, compared to three points nationwide; even if you're using a microsample of a single election, that's not enough to detect any sort of trend. If we zoom even a little farther out, Biden's nationwide performance in 2020 was almost the same as Obama's in 2012, but his performance in California was three points better. That's an obvious Democratic trend.

In 2018, Gavin Newsom won the largest margin of victory for a Democrat in any gubernatorial election since 1875 and the highest share of the vote of any Democratic gubernatorial candidate in the history of the state. In 2021 he won by almost exactly the same margin. In 2022 he won by another landslide; acting like a drop in the Democratic vote share of less than three points compared to a Democratic wave year is evidence of anything is absurd to me, especially considering the evidence we have from literally the previous year.

The last time the state senate was as Democratic as it is now was the legislature elected in 1882. The last time the state assembly was as Democratic as it is now was the legislature elected in 1876. These do not suggest to me a state that is "trending R".

Most recently, the state has trended Republican. Of course, you could call it a dead cat's bounce, since the state has shifted to the left dramatically over the past twenty years and is now a very deep-blue state.

CA did trend rightward in 2020 - it was one of the few states where (based on margin, not percentage of the vote, which is more flawed and incomplete) Clinton did better than Biden. Of course, it also trended a lot to the left in 2016, from 2012.

These sorts of historical performances you're mentioning like 1875 and 1882 don't mean a lot, either. CA has only moved to the right recently (and, as Khuzifenq said, mildly), and again, that was after a long time of shifting to the left. Even now it's much bluer than it was at any point in history more than a few years back. Yes, Democrats are doing much better than they did in the nineteenth or twentieth centuries. CA has "trended" heavily Democratic since then. Nobody's denying that.

But we're talking about most recently. Most recently, Newsom did about 5 points (which isn't that small of a rightward trend) worse than he did in both 2018 and 2021. Now, yes, you could chalk that up to 2018 being a blue wave and could argue that Dahle was a stronger candidate than Elder and/or Cox. But let's look at other data.

In both 2018 and 2020, Republicans picked up House seats. Yes, even now it's only some 11 or 12 out of 52 total, which is a terrible performance as compared to any time more than a few years back. Still, since we're using facts like "first time since this year" or "best performance since that year," 2020 was the first time since 1998 that the GOP flipped House seats in CA (yes, not even in 2010 did they flip any - though to be very fair, that was entirely because of a bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander in place at the time). Democrats flipped House seats in CA even in 2014 (CA-31 was one of very few seats in the entire country to flip blue that year). And, of course, they flipped a ton in 2018. But most recently? The GOP flipped several House seats of their own in 2020 (including in double-digit Biden districts). And in 2022, despite a number of seats made vulnerable through redistricting (plus the seats that were already on shaky ground, having voted for Biden comfortably in 2020), they didn't lose any seats - the Democrats did.

All this is especially true in SoCal. SoCal trended to the left in 2016, yes, but in 2020/2022 the GOP regained some lost ground. Orange County has trended left for a while, and Newsom won it in 2018, first time in forty years it voted blue. It stuck with him in the recall as well. But in 2022? It voted for Dahle. The GOP is starting to improve their performance in places like Orange County, which have trended left for a while but are now finally reversing.

Yes, in a broader sense, CA has still trended sharply left since, say, ten or fifteen years back. But most recently? (i.e., in the past few election cycles?) It's definitely trended a little to the right.

I would say that the GOP plateaud around 2016-2018 in California. I don't think they can go further down than that 2016 low. And like I said, there's a few firsts in there (you mentioned the gains in 2020 and 2022, which haven't happened since the last century).
In no way will California be a red state anytime soon, hell it's not even in the range of being worthwhile to bother there. But the state GOP (which I remember reading an article a few years back declaring it was moribund) has made gains. Trump has made gains with Hispanics and Asian Americans. We'll have to wait until 2024 to see if CA continues a rightward trend or if it was a fluke.

[Ragnaroni]

CA is trending mildly R

Based on what, exactly?

Higher turnout in 2020 benefitting federal Republicans relative to 2016 and an R swing in CA-GOV from 2018 (and/or the 2021 recall) to 2022 caused almost entirely by lower turnout in D-leaning areas. The latter is to be expected during a D president midterm.

It is possible in the case of the 2022 election that longtime Democrats just refused to vote instead of vote Republicans, this isn't unheard of. The voter turnout went down for Republicans as well.
Also shouldn't higher turnout in 2020 help the Democrats? Republicans got their highest votes ever from CA that year and so did Democrats.

[Ragnaroni]

CA is trending mildly R

Based on what, exactly? Biden's performance in 2020 improved by two points on Clinton's performance in 2016 in California, compared to three points nationwide; even if you're using a microsample of a single election, that's not enough to detect any sort of trend. If we zoom even a little farther out, Biden's nationwide performance in 2020 was almost the same as Obama's in 2012, but his performance in California was three points better. That's an obvious Democratic trend.

In 2018, Gavin Newsom won the largest margin of victory for a Democrat in any gubernatorial election since 1875 and the highest share of the vote of any Democratic gubernatorial candidate in the history of the state. In 2021 he won by almost exactly the same margin. In 2022 he won by another landslide; acting like a drop in the Democratic vote share of less than three points compared to a Democratic wave year is evidence of anything is absurd to me, especially considering the evidence we have from literally the previous year.

The last time the state senate was as Democratic as it is now was the legislature elected in 1882. The last time the state assembly was as Democratic as it is now was the legislature elected in 1876. These do not suggest to me a state that is "trending R".

Most recently, the state has trended Republican. Of course, you could call it a dead cat's bounce, since the state has shifted to the left dramatically over the past twenty years and is now a very deep-blue state.

CA did trend rightward in 2020 - it was one of the few states where (based on margin, not percentage of the vote, which is more flawed and incomplete) Clinton did better than Biden. Of course, it also trended a lot to the left in 2016, from 2012.

These sorts of historical performances you're mentioning like 1875 and 1882 don't mean a lot, either. CA has only moved to the right recently (and, as Khuzifenq said, mildly), and again, that was after a long time of shifting to the left. Even now it's much bluer than it was at any point in history more than a few years back. Yes, Democrats are doing much better than they did in the nineteenth or twentieth centuries. CA has "trended" heavily Democratic since then. Nobody's denying that.

But we're talking about most recently. Most recently, Newsom did about 5 points (which isn't that small of a rightward trend) worse than he did in both 2018 and 2021. Now, yes, you could chalk that up to 2018 being a blue wave and could argue that Dahle was a stronger candidate than Elder and/or Cox. But let's look at other data.

In both 2018 and 2020, Republicans picked up House seats. Yes, even now it's only some 11 or 12 out of 52 total, which is a terrible performance as compared to any time more than a few years back. Still, since we're using facts like "first time since this year" or "best performance since that year," 2020 was the first time since 1998 that the GOP flipped House seats in CA (yes, not even in 2010 did they flip any - though to be very fair, that was entirely because of a bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander in place at the time). Democrats flipped House seats in CA even in 2014 (CA-31 was one of very few seats in the entire country to flip blue that year). And, of course, they flipped a ton in 2018. But most recently? The GOP flipped several House seats of their own in 2020 (including in double-digit Biden districts). And in 2022, despite a number of seats made vulnerable through redistricting (plus the seats that were already on shaky ground, having voted for Biden comfortably in 2020), they didn't lose any seats - the Democrats did.

All this is especially true in SoCal. SoCal trended to the left in 2016, yes, but in 2020/2022 the GOP regained some lost ground. Orange County has trended left for a while, and Newsom won it in 2018, first time in forty years it voted blue. It stuck with him in the recall as well. But in 2022? It voted for Dahle. The GOP is starting to improve their performance in places like Orange County, which have trended left for a while but are now finally reversing.

Yes, in a broader sense, CA has still trended sharply left since, say, ten or fifteen years back. But most recently? (i.e., in the past few election cycles?) It's definitely trended a little to the right.

I would say that the GOP plateaud around 2016-2018 in California. I don't think they can go further down than that 2016 low. And like I said, there's a few firsts in there (you mentioned the gains in 2020 and 2022, which haven't happened since the last century).
In no way will California be a red state anytime soon, hell it's not even in the range of being worthwhile to bother there. But the state GOP (which I remember reading an article a few years back declaring it was moribund) has made gains. Trump has made gains with Hispanics and Asian Americans. We'll have to wait until 2024 to see if CA continues a rightward trend or if it was a fluke.

Agreed.

Btw, since I've only seen you talk about political trends and election results so far, what are your own political views? Given the blue avatar I'm guessing you're right wing, but are you moderate, far-right, establishmentarian, against the establishment, pro-Trump, anti-Trump?

Hmm its a bizarre mix of stances. In 2016 after Trump immediately won in 3 states that haven't voted Republican since Reagan, I was pro but I soured on him by 2019. He's obnoxious, says stupid stuff that any politician wouldn't say (I know that's why people like him but it makes him more unpopular). Now I want him gone but wouldn't mind his politics sticking to the Republicans if moderated. I see Trump as a liability and not an asset.

I'm moderate center right? I don't see myself ever supporting the Democrats but I do have a lot of issues with the crazy wing of the Republican party. Especially those two ladies : Greene and Boebert, McConnell, that South Carolinian, I do not like them. Though not moderate enough to like RINOs, a RINO in a deep blue state I like, a RINO in a deep red state isn't ok.

If Reagan, H.W Bush and Dubya are "establishment" then I guess I'm establishment. I liked Romney a bunch too. I don't know what DeSantis is. I didn't like McCain at all though, just got a weird vibe from him.

I disagree with Trump's tariffs since I am in uni/college for economics. Free trade benefits us all but some will be hurt short term. Culture war stuff, I donno honestly. Some of it, I simply disagree with but sometimes I feel the Republicans exaggerate them way too much. I do have some, I guess Democrat, stances. I disagree with complete deregulation and I have a slightly favorable stance on unions in specific cases, teacher's unions I hate with a passion, auto maker unions I like.

Ask me if i forgot anything lmao, that should be a general summary

[Ragnaroni]

CA is trending mildly R

Based on what, exactly? Biden's performance in 2020 improved by two points on Clinton's performance in 2016 in California, compared to three points nationwide; even if you're using a microsample of a single election, that's not enough to detect any sort of trend. If we zoom even a little farther out, Biden's nationwide performance in 2020 was almost the same as Obama's in 2012, but his performance in California was three points better. That's an obvious Democratic trend.

In 2018, Gavin Newsom won the largest margin of victory for a Democrat in any gubernatorial election since 1875 and the highest share of the vote of any Democratic gubernatorial candidate in the history of the state. In 2021 he won by almost exactly the same margin. In 2022 he won by another landslide; acting like a drop in the Democratic vote share of less than three points compared to a Democratic wave year is evidence of anything is absurd to me, especially considering the evidence we have from literally the previous year.

The last time the state senate was as Democratic as it is now was the legislature elected in 1882. The last time the state assembly was as Democratic as it is now was the legislature elected in 1876. These do not suggest to me a state that is "trending R".

Most recently, the state has trended Republican. Of course, you could call it a dead cat's bounce, since the state has shifted to the left dramatically over the past twenty years and is now a very deep-blue state.

CA did trend rightward in 2020 - it was one of the few states where (based on margin, not percentage of the vote, which is more flawed and incomplete) Clinton did better than Biden. Of course, it also trended a lot to the left in 2016, from 2012.

These sorts of historical performances you're mentioning like 1875 and 1882 don't mean a lot, either. CA has only moved to the right recently (and, as Khuzifenq said, mildly), and again, that was after a long time of shifting to the left. Even now it's much bluer than it was at any point in history more than a few years back. Yes, Democrats are doing much better than they did in the nineteenth or twentieth centuries. CA has "trended" heavily Democratic since then. Nobody's denying that.

But we're talking about most recently. Most recently, Newsom did about 5 points (which isn't that small of a rightward trend) worse than he did in both 2018 and 2021. Now, yes, you could chalk that up to 2018 being a blue wave and could argue that Dahle was a stronger candidate than Elder and/or Cox. But let's look at other data.

In both 2018 and 2020, Republicans picked up House seats. Yes, even now it's only some 11 or 12 out of 52 total, which is a terrible performance as compared to any time more than a few years back. Still, since we're using facts like "first time since this year" or "best performance since that year," 2020 was the first time since 1998 that the GOP flipped House seats in CA (yes, not even in 2010 did they flip any - though to be very fair, that was entirely because of a bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander in place at the time). Democrats flipped House seats in CA even in 2014 (CA-31 was one of very few seats in the entire country to flip blue that year). And, of course, they flipped a ton in 2018. But most recently? The GOP flipped several House seats of their own in 2020 (including in double-digit Biden districts). And in 2022, despite a number of seats made vulnerable through redistricting (plus the seats that were already on shaky ground, having voted for Biden comfortably in 2020), they didn't lose any seats - the Democrats did.

All this is especially true in SoCal. SoCal trended to the left in 2016, yes, but in 2020/2022 the GOP regained some lost ground. Orange County has trended left for a while, and Newsom won it in 2018, first time in forty years it voted blue. It stuck with him in the recall as well. But in 2022? It voted for Dahle. The GOP is starting to improve their performance in places like Orange County, which have trended left for a while but are now finally reversing.

Yes, in a broader sense, CA has still trended sharply left since, say, ten or fifteen years back. But most recently? (i.e., in the past few election cycles?) It's definitely trended a little to the right.

I would say that the GOP plateaud around 2016-2018 in California. I don't think they can go further down than that 2016 low. And like I said, there's a few firsts in there (you mentioned the gains in 2020 and 2022, which haven't happened since the last century).
In no way will California be a red state anytime soon, hell it's not even in the range of being worthwhile to bother there. But the state GOP (which I remember reading an article a few years back declaring it was moribund) has made gains. Trump has made gains with Hispanics and Asian Americans. We'll have to wait until 2024 to see if CA continues a rightward trend or if it was a fluke.

Agreed.

Btw, since I've only seen you talk about political trends and election results so far, what are your own political views? Given the blue avatar I'm guessing you're right wing, but are you moderate, far-right, establishmentarian, against the establishment, pro-Trump, anti-Trump?

Hmm its a bizarre mix of stances. In 2016 after Trump immediately won in 3 states that haven't voted Republican since Reagan, I was pro but I soured on him by 2019. He's obnoxious, says stupid stuff that any politician wouldn't say (I know that's why people like him but it makes him more unpopular). Now I want him gone but wouldn't mind his politics sticking to the Republicans if moderated. I see Trump as a liability and not an asset.

I'm moderate center right? I don't see myself ever supporting the Democrats but I do have a lot of issues with the crazy wing of the Republican party. Especially those two ladies : Greene and Boebert, McConnell, that South Carolinian, I do not like them. Though not moderate enough to like RINOs, a RINO in a deep blue state I like, a RINO in a deep red state isn't ok.

If Reagan, H.W Bush and Dubya are "establishment" then I guess I'm establishment. I liked Romney a bunch too. I don't know what DeSantis is. I didn't like McCain at all though, just got a weird vibe from him.

I disagree with Trump's tariffs since I am in uni/college for economics. Free trade benefits us all but some will be hurt short term. Culture war stuff, I donno honestly. Some of it, I simply disagree with but sometimes I feel the Republicans exaggerate them way too much. I do have some, I guess Democrat, stances. I disagree with complete deregulation and I have a slightly favorable stance on unions in specific cases, teacher's unions I hate with a passion, auto maker unions I like.

Ask me if i forgot anything lmao, that should be a general summary

I see. Thanks for the detailed description.

No problem!

[Ragnaroni]

Higher turnout in 2020 benefitting federal Republicans relative to 2016 and an R swing in CA-GOV from 2018 (and/or the 2021 recall) to 2022 caused almost entirely by lower turnout in D-leaning areas. The latter is to be expected during a D president midterm.

It is possible in the case of the 2022 election that longtime Democrats just refused to vote instead of vote Republicans, this isn't unheard of. The voter turnout went down for Republicans as well.
Also shouldn't higher turnout in 2020 help the Democrats? Republicans got their highest votes ever from CA that year and so did Democrats.

For 2022 CA-GOV turnout I only really paid attention to select D-leaning suburbs outside of the big cities, but it's probably also true in the core cities and rurals too.

Re: wait, is CA going to SWING R?

My theory: Record turnout = low propensity voters actually voting. In California's case, these voters are probably conservatives. Combined with Trump's improvement with Hispanics and Asians and you have California shifting towards republicans.

Edit: But also, California going from D+23 in 2012 to D+30 in 2016 to D+29 in 2020 doesn't seem that notable.

Edit 2: And it seems like there's substantially less third party vote this year. Quite possible some of those voters shifted to Trump.

Hot take: increased GOTV efforts resulted in right-leaning/anti-establishment, low-propensity Latino and Asian voters who normally wouldn’t bother voting in a Titanium D state to turn out.

I mean things can change in ways no one could expect 20-30 years from now

No one expects the Sun and Moon timeline 2036 presidential map, which tbf doesn't seem that likely given coalition trends since the timeline's writing.

That is fair. They do bring up a good point with pro-incumbent swing. We'll have to wait and see if there's a R or D trend. Very interested in what's the deal with Imperial county. It is interesting to see the trend map built in the website. L.A, Orange, San Bernardino, Tulare, Glenn, Monterey and a bunch in the Bay Area are "trending" republican according to the map.

[Ragnaroni]

This is my home state (born in SD, lived in OC the last 14 years) so I will answer to the best of my abilities.

1.) Absolutely horrendous, awful Democrat nominee who has no charisma, minimal excitement, and has at least 1-2 skeletons in their closet.

2.) Youngish GOP nominee who is very charismatic , appears moderate on social issues, charming, preferably Asian or Hispanic, and appeals very very well to soccer moms/ chardonnay wine drinking moms ( think Glenn Younkin, I know he is white, but he appealed very well to these females)

3.) A unique situation in California that plays right into the GOPs hands (like crime in NY). Lets say, crime, southern border crisis, something else that plays preferable to Republican stances occurs in California at a BAD rate in a way that no one can deny.

4.) A heavy R leaning year in which either a Democrat incumbent is an absolute disaster, or there is an awful recession.

5.) Weak turnout within Los Angeles County from Democrats. I think a GOP nominee needs to hit at least 40% in LA County to win statewide, and even that is probably the bare minimum. Has there ever been a statewide victory in CA for the GOP without securing at least 40% in LA County?

All of this TOGETHER "may" give the GOP a "punchers" chance, and even then they would be slight underdogs. Its a very difficult state for them to win. I can see the GOP running it up and doing very well in San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura counties along with the whole Central Valley. Heck, I can even see a GOP doing decently in Sacramento in a "great GOP year". The problem for them is the Bay Area and LA County.

This seems the most likely case to me as well but it still feels within the 5% range of losing.