Mississippi 2003

[rbt48]

No big surprise in Mississippi in terms of race and party preferences.  In all the "Deep South" states, the story is the same.  If the Republicans want to win, they need to get 70+% of the white vote.  The black vote is likely 90+% Democratic.  A liberal Democrat is almost sure to lose.  A populist or conservative Democrat is competative, because that candidate can do better among whites.  

The fact is, economics drive this situation.  Southern blacks are undeniably farther down the economic ladder than southern whites.  But additionally, ever since the Democrats seized the call for equality during the civil rights struggle in the 1950s and 1960s, the black vote has been solidly in the Democratic column.  It was just the opposite from the end of the Civil War to 1932, when the black vote was solidly Republican.  Of course, after 1876, blacks were largely disenfranchised across the South.  

I think one could argue that the civil rights battle will really be won when the day arrives that both parties can compete equally for the black vote.  That day, sadly, is probably as far off as the day when a Republican carries D.C. in a presidential election.  By the way, since it first got the vote in 1964, Washington has cast 82.83% of its vote for Democrats and 13.69% for Republicans.  The best Republican showing was Richard Nixon's 21.56% of the vote in 1972.  It has been below 10% the past three elections.  (These statistics are based upon the exceptional work of David Leip.)