2014 state legislature (general) elections

[rbt48]

I could see one or two Senate seats flipping here but no big gains. The state house is probably safe D for now though.

So, you see a chance for the Republicans to get a 25th seat in the WA State Senate, and hence, a majority?

[rbt48]

Here is the current partisan lineup, though I probably have more than a few errors in my spreadsheet:
http://www.rbt48.com/weather/Presidential_Elections/2012_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf

[rbt48]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

Kentucky House: 56-44 D.

Kentucky House:  51R - 49D.

[rbt48]

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

If anywhere, I'd say eastern Kentucky. But a lot of the Democrats running there are unopposed this time.

Right.  Eastern Kentucky (besides being your home) is where the coal mines are concentrated -and that by extension means that is where the mining unions have their greatest influence.  

And Republicans are strongest in the central part of the state, with growing strength in western Kentucky, which -as it happens- is where they are looking to make gains in the legislature.
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Vosem is right, BTW.  If I were to make predictions based on where I live and who I talk to (oblivious to the rest of the state), I would wonder why Democrats aren't dominating the Virginia General Assembly...

Well, traditionally, eastern KY was the most Republican part of the state.  Back to the Civil War, the absence of slavery in eastern KY made that part of the start the most pro-Union.  After the war until the Great Depression, eastern KY was reliably Republican.  The depression made the major coal mining areas flip to the Democrats, notably Harlan County.  But the east was where Republicans got most of their support, along with scattered counties right up along the Ohio River.  Check out Jackson County which often has voted 90% R since the end of the Civil War to today.

Starting with the special election to replace Rep Natcher, around 1994, western KY began to flip to the Republicans and the trend continues.  Except for Louisville, Lexington and Covington, the state has become by-in-large a Republican bastion.

[rbt48]

After yesterday's elections, Democrats will control five chambers south of the Mason-Dixon line and east of Colorado/New Mexico:
Delaware House and Senate (2)
Maryland House and Senate (2)
Kentucky House (1)

The West Virginia Senate will be tied, 17 - 17.

All other chambers are Republican controlled:
Virginia (2)
North Carolina (2)
South Carolina (2)
Georgia (2)
Florida (2)
West Virginia (1)
Kentucky (1)
Tennessee (2)
Alabama (2)
Mississippi (2)
Missouri (2)
Arkansas (2)
Louisiana (2)
Texas (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Kansas (2)

If my arithmetic is correct, that is 30 - 5 - 1.

Now, how the Republicans managed to avoid seizing the State H of R is beyond me.  They upped their control of the S Senate to 26 - 12 but still trail in the House 53 -46 - 1 (U).