If the Democrats hang on to the statehouses in: OH, MI, WI, IA and IL

[rbt48]

I think that the Republicans could lose all the states you mention but Iowa.  I can't envision Branstad losing.  They really should pick up the open seat in Michigan and perhaps Wisconsin, but I don't know that Strickland is all that unpopular or blamed for the recession in Ohio.  I don't think that Ohio has turned out an incumbent since Gilligan in (of all years) 1974.  Illinois might have to strong a habit of beating up on the disorganized GOP.  But, really, is it a plus to govern these rust belt states during a recession?

Of states you didn't mention, they should pick up Pennsylvania, and that would be a significant gain.  Perhaps he'll bring back the State Assembly, which would be nice for redistricting..