Why would this happen? What demographic trends in MN would cause us to go to the right of MI and PA?
Absolutely none, but 2016 showed that Republicans could come very close to flipping MN (and NH.....and NV--I would add that 2020, and finally 2022, were even better for Republicans in Nevada).
Maybe to the right of Michigan - because I think it's possible Michigan swings pretty substantially left in 2024 - but I am very doubtful it could be to the right of both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may be more up in the air, but I don't think it's impossible that Biden holds Michigan while potentially losing Minnesota.....although, I DO ADMIT that if MN goes Republican, there is a HIGH chance the Republican candidate ALSO wins PA and WI.
If the Republicans win Minnesota, they've already won Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even if they do manage to win all three, Minnesota will still vote to the left of them.
PA, I agree. Michigan is trending hard left, in the way that Colorado is. Surely, in either 2024 or 2028 MN can be the "Michigan of 2016" (i.e. the only Rust Belt state to buck the trend by going for a D while the R wins every other Rust Belt state).
It did happen in 2008, so it’s not out of the question. Seems to be a hard floor/ceiling of 44-46% for the gop no matter what.
To me, it’s safe D in terms of outcome.
It's interesting that McCain/Palin of all tickets were able to achieve a great turnout/floor than a candidate like Romney or even Trump. McCain was despised by the base in 2008 for his perception as a moderate, if not liberal, Republican and Palin was liked by the base but was widely seen by educated, liberal voters (of which MN has many, be they Republicans or otherwise) as an idiot, so I am surprised that McCain/Palin of all tickets was able to do relatively well in MN, despite losing WI by a wider margin of 2 more points. MN has suburbs, and Romney was the candidate who performed better in the suburbs than any GOP candidate since Bush.
