KY: Rasmussen: Conway cuts Paul lead in half (user search)
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  KY: Rasmussen: Conway cuts Paul lead in half (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY: Rasmussen: Conway cuts Paul lead in half  (Read 3795 times)
Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

« on: October 19, 2010, 11:34:53 AM »

This remains one of the most interesting races in the country. I still worry that "Aqua Buddah" - which was a hail mary, obviously - might backfire, mind you.
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Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2010, 11:45:38 AM »

Was this poll taken before the whole Aqua Buddha scandal? I'm inclined to think the numbers may actually have changed.

That was weeks ago.

I'm guessing he means that controversial ad and debate exchange. But it's irrelevant, it was done yesterday.
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Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2010, 02:00:57 PM »

One question to ask though.  On another site, they say Paul leads among women, but trails among men in this poll.  If so, I find that very hard to believe.  Can anyone confirm that?

Don't look at crosstabs.

This. Crosstabs have been hilarious this cycle.
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Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2010, 04:36:33 PM »

FWIW, the latest DSCC internal has Conway ahead 49 - 47.

I'm not going to bother making a thread since it is an internal, but I guess you could argue releasing such a poll shows the Conway camp are somewhat confident they can win this.
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Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2010, 04:47:25 PM »

FWIW, the latest DSCC internal has Conway ahead 49 - 47.

I'm not going to bother making a thread since it is an internal, but I guess you could argue releasing such a poll shows the Conway camp are somewhat confident they can win this.

Then why run that ad?  The theme around this state has been Conway ran that ad because he is behind and needed a game changer.  They released that "poll" to make the claim he's not behind and needs a game changer.  I don't think any politcal observer thinks Conway is ahead, but that doesn't mean he can't win.

The internal is from yesterday, AFAIK...
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Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2010, 04:55:54 PM »

This race was really starting to close up. You'd expect an ad like this from someone who's just about cooked. I really hope Paul can pull this out.

It's Elizabeth Dole all over again.

Yes, look at Paul's surge in this poll, taken yesterday.
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