Who wins Nevada?

[oldtimer]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

[oldtimer]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

2022 Nevada registration was moving slowly to the GOP, at that time you could say it warranted a small 2 point shift from 2020, not a red wave.

Now another 2 years of that and that's another 2 points on top, so that's 4 points more GOP than 2020, now you can forecast a flip but not by a big margin.

Plus it may be accelerating, so it could end up a bit more than a 4 point shift.

You can also see the weakness of Democrats in Washoe (Reno), the 1 place where they gained ground in the past and now they lost their lead.

[oldtimer]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Party registration is not nearly as useful a tool for estimating outcomes in Nevada as it used to be. Republicans may have gained on Democrats since 2020 but it's not because they are gaining more registrants, it's because they are losing them at a slower rate than the Democrats. Meanwhile unaffiliated/minor party registrations are exploding. In Nov 2020 "other" voters made up 31% of the electorate, today it's 40%. A large share of these non major party registrants are young people who were automatically registered and never bothered to pick a party but would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican if they bother to show up and vote.

2022 confirmed that it still is the best tool in Nevada.