Argentina General Discussion: Shock Therapy (user search)
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  Argentina General Discussion: Shock Therapy (search mode)
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Author Topic: Argentina General Discussion: Shock Therapy  (Read 9006 times)
oldtimer
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Posts: 3,318
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« on: November 25, 2023, 12:47:24 PM »

My guess is Argentina will see huge boost in GDP which is good thing, but basically all of it will flow to the very wealthy and average Argentinian will be worse off and that is not a good thing.  Societies with a few at top and weak middle class tend to have lots of social issues while countries with strong middle class tend to be most socially cohesive.  Off course it is important to have some rich people, you don't want to go on full communist like Cuba or Venezuela but Nordic Countries have plenty of very wealthy people while still have strong middle class.

Canada and US (Yes I am biased from there) is good example.  GDP per capita is much lower in Canada than US, but Canada on quality of life does much better as less crime, less poverty, less racism, longer life expectancy so many here just fine being poorer than US if wealth more equally distributed and we are still globally in top 20 richest countries per capita, just not top 10 or top 5 (if you exclude tax havens and microstates) like US is.

So my guess is Argentina's GDP per capita rises a lot, but average person is as bad or worse off while it is great for wealthy.  Sort of a repeat of Russia in 90s when oligarchs made it big but rest fell behind as things sold off piece meal.  Cuts and privatization made be needed but should be done methodolically for former while for latter have open competition on bids not given away to oligarchs which I fear if rushed rather than done slower will happen.

Russia's GDP didn't rise in the 1990's.

All countries that tried Shock Therapy had their economies hit very badly and some never really recovered.

Even Thatcher was forced to abandon Friedman when his ideas failed in practice.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,318
Greece


« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2023, 12:37:33 PM »

Looks like I named the thread well:



Beyond the generic IMF type austerity, he is focusing on trade.

Also he realises that there will be a negative impact, so the child benefit and food aid expansion is surprisingly realistic from him.
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