What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch?

[oldtimer]

^ and Asian Americans, though they don’t get much attention (cause so many live in NYC and Cali), are also trending right. Here in NYC, there are some recognizable Chinese-American clusters in South Brooklyn that have been trending Republican for multiple election cycles. They were one of the many factors for Lee Zeldin’s solid performance last November

https://news.yahoo.com/more-asian-americans-voting-republican-230020012.html

Cope. The NYC Chinatowns were never not going to trend R in local elections barring a Steve Miller-type takeover of the GOP. This seemed rather obvious to me as far back as the Obama era.

Also the R trends the Nextshark article you linked speak of aren't necessarily "bad" or "preventable" for Dems so long as it's due to increased turnout from newer naturalized immigrants breaking close to 50-50. Blacks and Latinos also trended R in 2020 due to increased turnout.

It’s not about turnout where new Chinese Americans are voting 50-50, nor is it “not bad” for Dems.  Dems have recently lost seats in local districts with large Chinese-American populations (eg Lester Chang in the 49th council district in 2022, Inna Vernikov in the 48th district in 2018 ). The Sunset Park area, which used to vote 70% Dem, voted for Lee Zeldin in 2022; and he won 23 predominantly Asian election districts combined in the two Assembly districts. Overall, Asian voters in NYC shifted 23% rightwards. (see: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/05/nyregion/election-asians-voting-republicans-nyc.html).In the year prior, as well, Curtis Sliwa got 44% of the vote in Asian-majority districts in NYC when he faced Eric Adams

In 2020, Asians voted 68-30% Dems nationally. In 2022, they voted 64%-32% Dem. In contrast, Dems had a 50-point advantage in 2004, a 56-point advantage in 2012, and a 61-point advantage in 2016

It's insane to think Zeldin nearly won a precinct in Chinatown (Manhattan). I think culturally, many Asian families tend to have more traditional values, so I think in some ways the GOP being more defined by social issues may actually help them with Asian American voters.

It helps them with all minorities, not just Asians.

But African Americans are the only ones not budging so far.

However gaining with Minorities doesn't help you win Presidencies or the Senate, unless you win 60%+ of them. At that point New York flips and California becomes a swing state.
 
So far it will help the GOP, but only in the House.

[oldtimer]

Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

Let me examine it.

Category 1: Probably people from Marin county or DC suburbs, so their vote is practically immaterial.

Category 2: Now that is the big one. Trump is though the most pro-choice republican nominee in a while and the economy is very good, that might complicate things.

Category 3: I'm not convinced that's not a myth. Trump, Bush Sr. and Carter didn't get any.