🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[oldtimer]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 11.3% of undecideds are excluded)

28.4% PS (nc)
27.3% PSD (-0.3)
15.2% CHEGA (+1.1)
  7.9% IL (-1.1)
  7.2% BE (+1.4)
  3.6% CDU (-1.1)
  2.7% Livre (+1.1)
  1.7% PAN (-1.2)
  1.5% CDS (+0.4)
  4.5% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.7 Luís Montenegro (-0.1)
2.6 Rui Tavares (-0.1)
2.6 Rui Rocha (-0.2)
2.6 António Costa (nc)
2.5 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.5 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.4 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.3 André Ventura (-0.1)
2.2 Paulo Raimundo (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 15 March 2023. Polled 613 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

I like how in both Portugal and Greece everyone is almost equally unpopular.

[oldtimer]

What a strange shift--if anything I would have expected it to be low-education middle-aged and older voters in rural areas, following the trends we've seen in other Western European countries. I know Portugal is somewhat of an anomaly with less educated voters still supporting the left, but it's no longer the anomaly it was until recently when it comes to right-wing populists in parliament.

Just guessing, but perhaps owing to the later entry into democracy, trends that happen elsewhere come later? PPD/PSD speedran the transition from left-leaning social democracy to neoconservatism from Carneiro to Cavaco that other Christian Democratic parties underwent during a longer period postwar.

Because of Portugal's long term similarity to Greece I might be able to explain.

Both Greece and Portugal are very urban, 40% of their population lives in just 2 large cities.

The greek countryside, apart from the tourist areas, became impoverished and abandoned during the 20th century and the population fled to the Capital in search of government aid and public sector jobs.

So because most live in dense cities and depend on the government, the Center Left in various forms has been dominant.

However since the beggining of the 21st century the center-left establishment that has governed since 1974, has been unable to reverse declining living standards in urban areas.

So the population is increasingly looking to the opposite side, to the right wing parties for leadership and policies to reverse the decline, if those can be found.

In a word: They blame those groups who have been in charge all these decades.

That's how it looks in Greece, and I think it probably applies to Portugal too given the similar demographics and economy.

[oldtimer]

Infrastructure minister João Galamba just announced his resignation from the cabinet. He lasted 4 months in government.

PM Costa is expected to give a live speech within a few minutes.

I'm becoming jealous of Portugal, their political system works better than the Greek one despite the similarities.

[oldtimer]

Infrastructure minister João Galamba just announced his resignation from the cabinet. He lasted 4 months in government.

PM Costa is expected to give a live speech within a few minutes.

I'm becoming jealous of Portugal, their political system works better than the Greek one despite the similarities.

Hold your horses...

Costa does not accept the resignation of João Galamba and President Marcelo publicly disagrees with the PM:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1653495115111977000

In a communication to the country this Tuesday, the prime minister announced that he did not accept the resignation of the Minister of Infrastructure, João Galamba.

The day was tense, with a lot of "secret meetings" with ministers and, at the end of the day, with a final meeting between Costa and Marcelo at the Presidential Palace. But, a "loud" silence was the result of these meetings with the media trying to find out what happened. Just after 8pm, João Galamba, minister for Infrastructures, tendered his resignation saying he was doing it because of the "perception of public opinion" of the events but that he did nothing wrong. Shortly after, Costa's office announced that the PM would speak to the country and pundits predicted he would say sorry, try to move forward and calm things. Big mistake. In his speech, Costa indeed apologized to the country about the awful events in the Infrastructure ministry building but surprised all by saying he did not accept João Galamba's resignation because he did nothing wrong, gave every single information asked and that the blame of the whole event was of the advisor. He acknowledges that his decision is against the opinion of a majority of pundits and the population, but that he had to take it, otherwise he wasn't being truthful with his conscience. Shortly after, President Marcelo's office sent out a statement which said that he "disagrees" with the Prime Minister's decision.

Reaction from pundits and commentators is that Costa instead of lowering the temperature and calm things down, he decided to escalate things and defend a cabinet minister at all costs, despite the rejection of the President. Several pundits point that a war between Costa vs Marcelo was ignited, with Costa taking on Marcelo's constant, and tiring, bluff statements about a weak Government and a possible dissolution of Parliament, and of humiliating the President. However, some also argue that this decision is dangerous and could be counterproductive.

But I think we can see how this ends:

Marcelo will dissolve parliament for early elections to fire Costa from his post as PM, we can feel it will eventually happen.

And that is the refreshing part from a Greek point a view, in Greece the post of PM has too much power.

[oldtimer]

Big development this morning: PM Costa's office and other ministers offices' were raided by the Police. Costa's Chief of Staff was arrested. Costa is also suspect of corruption.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1721869801646162354

Government investigated: Costa is a suspect and will be the subject of an investigation by the Supreme Court, there are suspicions of active and passive corruption

This morning is being marked by a big police raid in the offices of PM Costa and other ministers, plus other sites, due to a corruption investigation surrounding the lithium and hydrogen deals signed by Costa's government back in 2019. Costa's Chief of Staff, Vítor Escária, has been arrested, as well Costa's so called "best friend", and close advisor, Lacerda Machado. Sines City Hall, controlled by the PS, where some of the investement will be made, was also visited by the police. The Public Prosecutor says that they are investigating crimes of malfeasance, corruption and influence peddling. The Prosecutor adds that PM Costa is also suspect of corruption and an inquest on him will be made by the Supreme Court.

More updates when available.

If only the Greek legal system would do that on their PM's and Ministers.

I envy Portugal's legal system.

[oldtimer]

We don't yet know if this is conspiracy or simple cock up, though.

Hahaha sure we don’t!

But watch if this Sérgio Moro-like prosecutor will “resign” for this horrible “cock up”, like the Prime Minister did so easily like a wimp for something that wasn’t even about him.

It’s Costa’s own fault for giving up his position so easily before things got cleared up though, if he stayed as PM and these news of an “innocent mistake” came up then he wouldn’t look dumb as hell. But European “conformist” politics, especially for a smaller country like Portugal, don’t surprise me.

The bad thing about good people is that they assume everyone thinks and operates under the same rules they do. Resigning from any position based on people casting ~~suspicion~~ on you is the weakest dick energy I’ve seen in a long time. Everyone can cast suspicion at any time, what needs to happen is for things to be actually proved.

I’ve never seen this stuff, where accusations are enough for people to give up their positions and take the blame without an actual judgment and deep analysis of facts but the trend of lawfare has been absurdly growing globally for more than a decade now.

Perhaps Costa did the crime and he thought they caught him and gave himself up.

This wasn't a typical fight to the death like all politicians do, it's more like a Columbo episode.

[oldtimer]

Now, this is a massive age gap: (From the UCP–CESOP poll)

18-34 age: (30% undecided)

47% Rightwing parties
16% Leftwing

65+ age: (17% undecided)

43% Leftwing parties
31% Rightwing

The rest of the crosstabs aren't surprising: PS wins less educated, PSD more educated, PSD ahead in the male vote, while PS is ahead in the female vote. Note for the male vote, 18% would vote CHEGA, just one point behind the PS.

Why are young people leaning so much to the right? Especially since the Social Democrats are still competitive despite Costa's scandal.

It's a Western European thing.

It's basically a reaction to who dominated after the Cold War ended.

Everything on this side of the Berlin Wall: rightwing parties = change
Everything on the other side of the Berlin Wall: leftwing parties = change

[oldtimer]

- Remember the PSD MP, Maló de Abreu, who left the party last week and "denied, denied, denied" that he was going to CHEGA? Well, he IS going to CHEGA and will be a candidate for the overseas constituency of Outside Europe. Talk about credibility ;

And another one goes: Rui Cristina, PSD MP from Faro, also leaves the party and is set to become a candidate for CHEGA.

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1749406002586251637

Chega recruits another PSD MP. Rui Cristina will be head list for Évora

After Maló de Abreu, another PSD MP has announced he is leaving the party and is set to be a candidate in CHEGA's lists. Rui Cristina, MP from Faro district, said he is leaving the PSD because he accuses the leadership of "imposing candidates" and of "permanent quarrels for power". In the AD lists, Mr. Cristina had been demoted. He hasn't confirmed he will be a CHEGA candidate, saying he's still "refecting", but CHEGA has already confirmed to the media that he will be a candidate.

Maló de Abreu and Rui Cristina were strongly aligned with Rui Rio's leadership, and now go to CHEGA? This is almost the equivalent of Bernie Sanders becoming a GOP candidate.

I don't think that Alliance is working.

A larger pool of candidates is fighting for a smaller number of available seats.

While CHEGA has the inverse issue, of trying to find candidates for an expected larger number of seats.

[oldtimer]

SIC exit poll:

27.6-31.8% PSD/CDS/PPM
24.2-31.8% PS
16.6-20.8% CHEGA
    4.1-7.3% IL
    3.2-6.2% BE
    1.3-4.5% CDU
    0.5-3.1% PAN

Do they include some of the vote count in their calculations ?

[oldtimer]

European Portuguese is a very interesting language, sometimes it doesn´t sound like a romance language at all.

European Portuguese is an honorary Slavic language.

Sounds very central european, could be a Visigoth thing.

[oldtimer]

Here you can follow the live count:

https://www.legislativas2024.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-500000

No results from Lisbon Metro and very little from Porto yet.

43% of stations in then:

33.5% + 1% AD
29% PS
19.1% Chega
2.9 BE
2.8% IL
2.4% CDU
2.2% ADN (LOL)
1.4% Livre
1.1% PAN

About 12% of votes, almost all rural.

[oldtimer]

Some interesting results:

The most left-wing parishs in 2022, this time:

São Martinho, Alcácer do Sal, Setúbal

40,8 CDU
35,8 PS
  9,2 CH
  5,4 AD
  1,7 BE

Pedrógão, Vidigueira, Beja

35,6 PS
27,5 CDU
19,2 CH
  5,3 AD
  4,3 BE

Left-wing losses from all around, with PS and CDU losing in the same proportion, very slight BE recovery.

A quick interprentation from the results so far compared with 2022:
10% PS -> CHEGA
PSD same as '22.

[oldtimer]

What party did Farmlands actually vote for? I get utterly confused about his avatar. Despite his open support for Haley - and tbh most of her supporters are liberals who pretend to be conservatives for image reasons - he constantly reveals himself as a woke socialist and a cultural Marxist on the Germany boards. That's a bit confusing to me. Unless he is merely a fake conservative, he should wholeheartedly vote for the "It's enough!" party, shouldn't he?

I've barely made a post on the German boards... As for the election, this is somewhat of a worse result than I expected for AD, though I did expect that any government would likely need to rely on Chega to pass key votes, and that seem to be the case here.

These types of party mergers usually don't work, usually it ends up less than the sums of each separately.

"United we're weak" is a good european motto.

[oldtimer]

And the most right-wing parishes:

Veiga de Lila, Valpaços, Vila Real

74,0 AD
12,7 CH
  9,4 PS
  1,1 ADN

Saldanha, Mogadouro, Bragança (here in 2011, left-wing parties got 0 votes)

73,3 AD
11,6 PS
  9,3 CH
  2,3 IL

Boalhosa, Ponte de Lima. Viana do Castelo (the last CDS bastion, they got over 70% in 2019)

83,2 AD
  6,7 CH
  2,3 ADN (lol)
  2,3 PS

Here there was some stagnation, CH didn't make massive inroads in these places.

I wouldn't expect that, given the results so far are a clear 10-12% PS->CHEGA swing and nothing else.

[oldtimer]

About 1/3rd of the expected vote in.

Nothing from Lisbon or Porto, but these are the changes so far:

PS: -13%
PSD: 0%
CHEGA: +12%

If the rest goes the same the result would end up being:

PSD 29%
PS 28%
CHEGA 19%

Basically the opinion polls of the last 2 weeks where wrong, there never was a CHEGA->PSD move.

[oldtimer]

So the missing municipalities/districts are the most populated, right??

Half of the expected vote is in, but very little from Portugal's 2 cities, which make 40% of the population.

Portugal, like Greece, is very urban.

[oldtimer]

Looks like Lisbon and Porto are different than the rest of Portugal, no surprise there.

In Lisbon so far:

PS -12
PSD +4
CHEGA +7

In Porto:

PS -7
PSD -1
CHEGA +6

Rest of Portugal:

PS -13
PSD n/c
CHEGA +12

[oldtimer]

Safe to say my hunch was wrong and AD is only barely going to win this. A phyrric victory.

I think it's very likely PS will be 1st once every vote is counted, don't you?

Reminder that 1% of the PSD/AD vote is separated from the main total cause of the separate alliance setup in Madeira. 

I think the PSD will come 1st but with a very slim lead.

Lisbon and Porto could shift the numbers a bit, so in the end it may end up at:

PSD 30
PS 29
CHEGA 17

[oldtimer]

If you want to talk about Chega pulling from the PS, look nowhere other than Faro. Chega currently leads the PS there by .11%. They may not hold it, since Faro city has most of the remaining votes, but it is a prominent result nonetheless.

Looks like Chega has definitely won Faro district which covers the Algarve.

Last time a right wing party won a district was 1976.

[oldtimer]

If you want to talk about Chega pulling from the PS, look nowhere other than Faro. Chega currently leads the PS there by .11%. They may not hold it, since Faro city has most of the remaining votes, but it is a prominent result nonetheless.

Looks like Chega has definitely won Faro district which covers the Algarve.

Last time a right wing party won a district was 1976.

Unless your counting PSD as not right wing, that's not true. CDS did win Guarda in 1976 and is the only district they ever won.

That's what i'm referring to.

CDS was the last one back in 1976.

[oldtimer]

Ok, now the question of the night.

What will the the big 2 do ?

CHEGA or grand coalition ?

[oldtimer]

Ok, now the question of the night.

What will the the big 2 do ?

CHEGA or grand coalition ?

First, we'll have to wait and see who polls first, it's not clear yet. Second, if AD narrowly wins, they will form a minority. If PS narrowly polls ahead, deadlock and possible new elections. Note of caution, there are thousands of overseas ballots to count that elect 4 MPs, and those will be crucial on who wins in the end.

I don't think this result would result in a stable minority government that would last long.

So new elections, in either a few weeks or months, or a coalition of some form are reasonable expectations.

[oldtimer]

The 6 million vote mark has been surpassed.

And the PS is technically ahead by 75 votes out of 6068035.

Shows that all this is just semantics.

[oldtimer]

The 6 million vote mark has been surpassed.

And the PS is technically ahead by 75 votes out of 6068035.

Shows that all this is just semantics.

remember one of the islands have there ad counted separately

It just doesn't matter.

Brag that they won the popular vote by a handfull, when they are both doing piss poor ?

[oldtimer]

That's British Tory levels of impending age divide doom. Didn't quite realise PS were Sunak levels of utterly hated by young people.

I don't think it is strictly comparable to the British Tories, who a) right now are struggling to even hit 28% in the polls b) exist in a political system where that means the other major party is well above 40% and that margin is going to be further amplified by FPTP. It is certainly rather worrisome data for the PS but what caught my attention even more and should be worrisome for everybody is CHEGA getting 25% from the same demographic.

The Berlin Wall divide.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Continental Western Europe having a very different Cold War and post-Cold War experience than the other side of the Iron Curtain.

On the Western side, the old establishment which youngsters are rebelling against are the Social Democrats.

While in the East it's the Populist Conservatives who are rebelling against.

And in Britain it's against the milk-toast Conservatism.

Basically all you need to do is stand still for 15 or 30 years, and power falls into your lap when the generational pendulum swings.