🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National Parliament 09 June 2024)

[oldtimer]

Ridiculous that this was rejected. This is why constitutions should provide for automatically organizing a binding referendum once the required number of signatures is reached instead of needing approval from parliament first. Not adopting the Euro without having an official opt-out is accepted by the European Commission; Sweden sets the precedent.

Legally there is zero doubt that the signature threshold that makes holding a referendum mandatory has been reached. However, referendums may not be held on 'questions settled in an international treaty' and opponents argue that the commitment Bulgaria made to adopt the Euro when signing the EU accession treaty make it impossible to hold a referendum on the matter. Proponents (Vazrazhdane) argue that the question only postpones the Euro adoption by 20 years, and does not contradict the commitment made in the treaty. 

Bluntly put though, the rejection is entirely due to the governing, uh, non-coalition of GERB, PP-DB and DPS not wanting the referendum to take place simultaneously with the local elections in the autumn, as it would drive Vazrazhdane turnout up, but more importantly, the (potentially) higher turnout for the locals could - hypothetically - drive the referendum participation rate to the point where it would become binding. The Constitutional court will likely reject the rejection, but this will happen in the fall, and by that point it will probably be too late for parliament to schedule the referendum together with the locals. The referendum would have to wait for the EU Parliament election in June 2024, where the turnout will be tragic and the participation threshold will certainly not be met. If the non-coalition parties lose 1-2 MEP seats to Vazrazhdane, well, so be it. As to the expected referendum results, as the best way to oppose it is to abstain, there is little doubt that yes voters [postpone the Euro adoption] will outnumber the no voters by at least 3 to 1.

[snip]

Yeah. Like previously mentioned, a lot of Vazrazhdane-adjacent people are too jaded to vote, otherwise they (and similar parties) would be vastly more represented in parliament. There is, however, also a non-minuscule proportion of anti-EU voters who nevertheless vote GERB or DPS, despite the stated orientations of the parties. The GERB Orbanist wing is currently silenced, but the undercurrent is still there.

Sweden is out because not fulfill the requirements, and Bulgaria can stay out with same not fulfill the requirements, if Bulgaria is already fulfilled the requirements it's a them fault

Thing is, Bulgaria has been under a currency board for a quarter of a century, the lev is pegged to the Euro (previously to the Deutsche Mark) and for all practical purposes, the adoption of the Euro will only mean that Bulgaria will now have a say, however minor, in determining the ECB policies and that the vast amount of currency reserves that the Central Bank keeps to prop up the lev will be freed. The latter is, of course, a major reason why the governing parties want to hurry up with the adoption as soon as 2025. In the leaked PP recording, the EU powers-that-be had apparently promised that as long as the deficit is held under the 3% threshold, the inflation criteria will be overlooked and the Euro will be adopted from 1 January 2025. The governor of the National Bank (just re-elected by the non-coalition) is certainly making all the necessary moves.

Greece supports Bulgaria's entry to the Euro in order to destroy Bulgaria's economy.

In order to get back all those greeks who spend their money on cheap Bulgarian products and services, and have set up front companies in Bulgaria.

Though it's entirely possible those will simply move to other non-euro neighbours like Turkey or North Macedon, instead of returning their money to Greece.

[oldtimer]

That's actually one of the weak spots of parliamentary systems, when the party landscape is simply too fractured. In my view they aren't automatically superior to presidential systems with functioning checks and balances.

It's a bit better than Greece.

Here all power is concentrated on the hands of one person, who's not even directly elected.
As you can see from long term results, it hasn't worked well.