Biggest unexplained WTF results you've seen?

[Fancyarcher]

Obama winning Indiana was one as unlike Colorado and Virginia which were trending Democrat or North Carolina which was and has still stayed close, they seemed like a one off fluke as wasn't close prior to 2008 and hasn't been since.  Montana was also close to that as Obama came fairly close to winning it in 2008 but in all other elections this century, GOP has won it by double digits.

Indiana 2008 has actually been discussed to death. That was a one time phenomenon caused largely by the financial crisis. People say that Obama being in the Chicago Market helped him too, but I always thought that was overstated.

[Fancyarcher]

Obama winning Indiana was one as unlike Colorado and Virginia which were trending Democrat or North Carolina which was and has still stayed close, they seemed like a one off fluke as wasn't close prior to 2008 and hasn't been since.  Montana was also close to that as Obama came fairly close to winning it in 2008 but in all other elections this century, GOP has won it by double digits.

Indiana 2008 has actually been discussed to death. That was a one time phenomenon caused largely by the financial crisis. People say that Obama being in the Chicago Market helped him too, but I always thought that was overstated.

Another part of the reason was Obama actually spent in the state while McCain bailed, which is why it swung harder left than states where both sides spent heavily like OH and PA.

That's true, but it was because of the crash and the strong environment that resulted from it that he could do so without embarrassing himself.

Ironically the swings that were best him for him in the state were actually technically the rural areas. 2008 was a different world.

[Fancyarcher]

Al Gore losing his home state, only McGovern managed to do that.

Tennessee was trending GOP and if you look at how GOP has done since, actually he did surprisingly well.

McGovern also did quite well in South Dakota, losing it by single digits when he was getting blown out nationally.

That's the point, Gore losing Tennessee in 2000 shouldn't ordinarily happen.

The Gore family had a long hold over the state + Clinton won it twice + Clinton was super popular + the South did not trend that republican in Presidential elections in the 1990's.

Actually Tennessee trended red in 1996. Clinton lost a lot of counties and ground compared to 1992. In fact it's easy to argue that unlike 1992 if Perot wasn't on the ballot, Clinton would have lost the state.

The state swung left in 2000, and Gore barely won the popular vote.

[Fancyarcher]

Still stunning is that Lyndon Johnson got 66% of the vote in Alaska in 1964. It voted to the left of the nation that year, but never Democrat at the presidential level since.

It's a great result but not that surprising if you consider that Alaska was still a new state at the time, and close in 1960, and 1968.

Another similar one in that category was Hawaii being close in 1976.

[Fancyarcher]

Still stunning is that Lyndon Johnson got 66% of the vote in Alaska in 1964. It voted to the left of the nation that year, but never Democrat at the presidential level since.

It's a great result but not that surprising if you consider that Alaska was still a new state at the time, and close in 1960, and 1968.

Another similar one in that category was Hawaii being close in 1976.

Wasn't that also due to fear of WWIII as AK is close to Russia? Goldwater was seen as a warmonger in the 1964 campaign.

Yes, though the circumstances of how this worked to such the effect that it did, could have been only as effectively doable as it was in the 60s.

[Fancyarcher]

The 2002 gubernatorial elections still seem very odd given the sheer number of governorships both parties flipped that year (10 from D to R, 11 from R to D). What makes it weirder is that both parties flipped seats in states that usually heavily favored the opposite party (Republicans picked up Vermont, Maryland, Minnesota, and Hawai'i at the same time that Democrats were winning Tennessee, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming).

Some of the individual races I can understand why they flipped, but overall I'm still not sure why so many states flipped both ways that year. The only other time since then where both parties gained multiple seats from each other was in 2010, but Republicans didn't win many states nearly as blue and Democrats didn't win many states nearly as red as they did in 2002.

Bush being in office slowed down any potential acceleration of polarization for Democrats, even if the year benefited his party overall. Also states like Tennessee were not as red as they are now.