French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Umengus]

odoxa poll

Marine : 37 %
les républicains + UDI: 26 %
PS: 21 %
PG+EELV: 9 %
extreme left: 4 %
debout la France: 1 %


Marine: 36 %
les républicains + UDI: 26 %
PS: 19 %
FG: 6 %
EELV: 4% (LOL)
extreme left: 4%
debout la France: 2 %


second turn:

Marine: 39 %
les républicains + UDI: 32 %
PS +... : 29 %

[Umengus]

Shocking BVA Poll

Nord

Le Pen: 42 %
Bertrand: 25 %
PS: 15 %

second turn:

Le Pen: 46 %
Bertrand: 29 %
PS: 25 %
EELV,FG,...: 8 %
PCF: 5 %


or

Le Pen: 52 %
Bertrand: 48 %


Paca

Marion: 36 %
Estrosi: 32 %
Castaner (PS): 15 %
FG, EELV,...: 10 %

Second turn:

Marion: 37 %
Estrosi: 36 %
Castaner: 27 %


Acal

Richert (les républicains,...): 31 %
Philippot (FN): 30 %
PS, EELV: 19 %
FG: 7 %


Second turn:

Richert: 37 %
Philipot: 33 %
PS,...: 30 %

Ile de France

Pécresse: 35 %
Bartelone: 23 %
FN: 17 %
EELV: 8 %
Dupont-Aignan: 8 %
FG: 5 %
PCF: 2 %

Second turn:

Pécresse: 41 %
Bartelone: 39 %
FN: 20 %


For the rest, BVA says that Bretagne (!), Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes et Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées will stay at left and that Centre-Val de Loire, Pays de la Loire et Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes will turn to right.

[Umengus]

I know it's probably a bit grim to start talking about these elections now, but how big an impat do you think the latest horrors will have?

Difficult to know of course.

In January, attacks shocked lots of people and the first thing was to unite against terrorism. Holland and Valls benefited  in the polls (+- 10-15 %). it's important to note despite this, Hollande was again very unpopular at this time 30-35 % fav).

But now the first feeling is rage. Rage against terrorists of course but too against government, unfit to protect citizens. So I'm not sure that it will effect his unpopularity (maybe amongst left voters).

Anyway, left will lose next regionals elections and FN will be consolidated.

[Umengus]

I know it's probably a bit grim to start talking about these elections now, but how big an impat do you think the latest horrors will have?

Difficult to know of course.

In January, attacks shocked lots of people and the first thing was to unite against terrorism. Holland and Valls benefited  in the polls (+- 10-15 %). it's important to note despite this, Hollande was again very unpopular at this time 30-35 % fav).

But now the first feeling is rage. Rage against terrorists of course but too against government, unfit to protect citizens. So I'm not sure that it will effect his unpopularity (maybe amongst left voters).

Anyway, left will lose next regionals elections and FN will be consolidated.

maybe I'm wrong: 73 % (25 % very, 48 % rather) approve the way Hollande faced the attacks. (odoxa poll).

But the first feeling is rage (but not against Hollande or valls...) 57%, sadness 40 %, solidarity 31 %.

Unlike january, there is no "union nationale", the right to be very angry.

[Umengus]

Given the context, there is no real campaign at the national level, and if there is a campaign at the local level, I am not sure many are interested... I think we cant rule out a very low turnout.

I think that the turn out will be better that predicted.

[Umengus]

first polls since 11/13

Harris poll (not the best pollster so far...)

FN: 27 %
PS-PRG: 26 %
LR-modem: 25 %
EELV (greens): 7 %
FG: 5 %
Dupont-Aignan: 5 %

Opinion way

FN: 30 %
LR-modem: 28 %
PS: 22 %
EELV: 9 %
FG: 4 %
Dupont-Aignan: 4 %





 

[Umengus]

Paca poll (done before the attacks)

Opinionway

Marion: 37 %
Estrosi : 31 %
PS: 18 %
EELV/FG: 8 %

Second turn:

Marion: 38 %
Estrosi: 35 %
PS,...: 27 %

or

Estrosi: 52 %
Marion: 48 %

or

Ps,...: 43 %
Marion: 57 %

[Umengus]

When and why did Modem allied itslef with LR?!

for last local élections in 2014 and because Hollande and PS are very unpopular. The alliance with LR is especially an alliance with Juppe, not Sarkozy.

If Juppe is the right candidate in 2012, Bayrou will not candidate.

[Umengus]

BVA POLL

Popularity

Hollande

fav: 33 % (+8)
unfav: 65 % (-10)

Valls

fav: 40 % (+3)
unfav: 58 %

So no surprise, Hollande and Valls are at their "post-charlie hebdo" level. Not enough to win elections IMO...

[Umengus]

IFOP poll

Hollande

approve: 27 %(+7%) (29 % after charlie hebdo attacks)
disapprove: 73 % (-6%)

Valls

approve: 39 % (+3)
disapprove: 60% ((-3)

that confirms the bva poll.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

11/19-21

PACA

Marion: 40 % (+3 % compared to the last ipsos poll taken 11/10-13)
Estrosi: 30% (-2)
Castagner: 16 % (=)
EELV-FG: 8 % (=)

Marion: 41 % (+3)
Estrosi: 34 % (-2 )
left: 25 % (-1)

[Umengus]

BVA poll

Paca

MArion 42 % (+6)
Estrosi: 28 % (-4)
PS: 16 %

runoff:

Marion: 43 % (+6)
Estrosi: 32 % (-4)
PS: 25 % (-2)

Nord:

Marine: 42 %
Bertrand: 24 %
PS: 17 %

runoff:

Marine 44 %
Bertrand: 30 %
PS: 26 %

Bourgogne-franche comté

UMP: 27 % (-4)
FN: 32 % (+6)
PS: 20 % (+1)

runoff:

UMP: 35 % (-1)
FN: 35 % (+4)
PS: ?

Normandy

UMP: 31 % (-1)
FN: 30 %(+3)
PS: 21 % (-2)

runoff:

UMP: 33 %
FN: 33 %
PS: 34 %

Auvergne-rhone alpes

UMP: 32 %(-3)
FN: 27 % (+5,5)
PS: ?

runoff

UMP: 36 % (-4)
FN: 28 % (+5)
PS: 36 % (-1)

Pays de la loire

runoff:

UMP: 42 % (-3)
FN: 24 % (+6)
PS: 34 % (-2)

Centre

runoff:

UMP: 39 % (-1)
FN: 31 % (+4)
PS: 30 % (-3)

Alsace-champagne-ardennes

runoff:

UMP: 39 %
FN (philippot): 35 %
ps: 26 %

Ile de France

Pécresse: 33 %
ps: 23 %
FN: 22 %

runofff:

Pécresse: 41 %
ps: 36 %
fn: 23 %

Bourgogne:

PS (le drian, defense minister): 29 % (-3)
ump: 29 % (-1)
fn: 22 % (+5)

runoff:

PS: 42 % (-4)
ump: 35 % (-1)
fn: 23 % (+5)

Aquitaine-limousin-Poitou

ps: 26 % (-10)
ump: 32 % (+2)
fn: ?

ps: 39 % (-7)
ump: 37 %
fn: ?







 

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

Paca

Marion: 39 %
Estrosi: 29 %
PS: 18 %

runoff:

MArion: 39 %
Estrosi: 34 %
PS: 27 %

[Umengus]

Pease correct me if I'm wrong, but France now only has 13 regions left due to some reform and the FN is projected to win 2 of them and leading in 2-3 others ?

13 ugly regions.

FN ahead and quite sure to win in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (Marine Le Pen) and in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Marion Maréchal-Le Pen).
FN threatening the right in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne (Florian Philippot) and both the right and the left in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (Sophie Montel).
FN up but still behind the left in Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (Louis Aliot).
FN up but still behind the left and the right in Normandie (Nicolas Bay).

I think that ps will retire in NPDCP and PACA so I'm not sure that Marine and Marion will win...

[Umengus]

Pease correct me if I'm wrong, but France now only has 13 regions left due to some reform and the FN is projected to win 2 of them and leading in 2-3 others ?

13 ugly regions.

FN ahead and quite sure to win in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (Marine Le Pen) and in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Marion Maréchal-Le Pen).
FN threatening the right in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne (Florian Philippot) and both the right and the left in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (Sophie Montel).
FN up but still behind the left in Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (Louis Aliot).
FN up but still behind the left and the right in Normandie (Nicolas Bay).

I think that ps will retire in NPDCP and PACA so I'm not sure that Marine and Marion will win...

NPDCP poll

Opinionway

Marine: 39 %
Bertrand: 24 %
Saintignon: 20 %
EELV-PG: 6,5 %
PCF: 5,5 %

Runoff

Marine: 49,5%
Bertrand: 50,5 %

or

Marine: 52 %
Saintignon: 48 %

or

Marine: 42 %
Saintignon: 30 %
Bertrand: 28 %


Marine must hope that Bertrand will finish 3nd at the first turn....

[Umengus]

turnout better in the régions (Nord, Paca, LRMP) where FN can win.

[Umengus]

turnout better in the régions (Nord, Paca, LRMP) where FN can win.

But does higher turnout help them really ?

If France is like Austria, higher turnout helps the FPÖ/FN - but not to the extent that they are winning anything. The FN might certainly get a good result and double/triple their %s in some regions, but eventually end up not winning any region in the 2nd round.

Impossible to know.

turnout 5 pm

- Corse : 52,59%
-Nord Pas-de-Calais - Picardie : 49,10%
-Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur : 46%
-Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes : 45,21%
-Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées : 44,70%
-Normandie : 44,16%
-Centre-Val de Loire : 43,95%
-Auvergne Rhône-Alpes : 43,24%
-Bourgogne - Franche-Comté : 42,89%
-Bretagne : 42,72%
-Pays de la Loire : 42,68%
-Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine : 41,39%
-Ile-de-France : 35,65%

[Umengus]

paca first estimation (twitter rumor...)

marion 41 %
estrosi: 27 %
ps: 16 %

[Umengus]

seem that ps is going to lose badly...

[Umengus]

marine would make a very good result at Henin Beaumont (FN city). Twitter rumor.

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yonne final result

fn 33 %
lr: 19
ps 16
debout la france: 9

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NPDCP

rumor

marine: 41 %
bertrand: 24 %
PS: 14 %

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national

rumor

Fn: 28-30
LR: 26-28
PS: 22-24
EELV: 6-7%
FG: 5 %

[Umengus]

NPDCP

Rumor

FN: 42
LR: 25
PS: 19

National:

FN: 27,5
LR: 27,3
PS: 23,6

(www.lalibre.be)

[Umengus]

exit poll (rumor)

fn: 29,5
lr: 27
ps: 23
eelv: 6,5
fg: 4,1