French referendum: exit poll in details

[Umengus]

The last poll (harris poll) gives the "yes" at 61% but it's a fall compared to 69% in october. Every polls show a fall of the "yes" (+-70% last year, +-60% today). It's not a surprise: for the maastricht referendum, the "yes" had begun at 70% to finish at... 51%.

The referendum will occur in a few months.

A good link (if you don't understand french, jus look at the graphics. It's clear...): http://www.bva.fr/new/Baro%20politique%20050117.pdf

[Umengus]

A new poll:

CSA, 2 & 3 february, 800
 
"Do you approve the EU constitution?"

(between () the old results, the extreme right result is the oldest)

- yes    60 (65/69/63/67/69)
- no     40 (35/31/37/33/31)

-abstention,... 54 (61)

Details (be careful, the size of groups is small)

               Expressed yes  No  (Abstention, blank vote or not valid) 
                      %         %    %     %

ALL               100         60   40     54 

Sex         
- man           100          62    38    45 
- woman      100           58   42     61 

Age         
- 18 à 24 y   100           57    43    53 
- 25 à 34 y   100           56    44    65 
- 35 à 49 y   100           53    47    53 
- 50 à 64 y   100           62    38    49 
- 65 ans y     100           70    30    52 

Profession         
- Farmers      100   52  48  63 
- Owners of the companies  100  58  42  54 
- Executives, liberal profession  100  71  29  46 
- Profession intermédiaire  100  57  43  46 
- Employed  100  42  58  61 
- workers 100  55  45  59 
- pensioners/unemployers  100  65  35  54

Comments

-The problem is that I don't know the proportion of each class in the french society. Moreover, everyone doesn't agree about it.

-The surprise is to see "workers", "farmers" and "65+" still in favor of EU constitution. The day of the vote, I bet that it will be not the case (for workers).

-The momentum is in favor of the "no", as in 1992.

-French pollsters say that the "no"  has more reserves than the "yes" (in others terms, abstentionnists prefer the "no").

-The referendum will occur in june.

[Umengus]

A new poll

BVA, 7 & 9 february, 1082

1) QUESTION "Do you approve the EU constitution?"

-yes: 58 (63)
-no: 42 (37)

No votes given: 34 (37)

2) DETAILS

            yes      no   yes-no

all         58       42    +16

A) BY SEX
men      56       44    +12
women 60       40    +20


B) By Jobs
craftsmen / small tradesmen / owners of the companies / the senior executives / liberal jobs   51 49 +2
intermediate profession 50 50 =
Employed 60 40 +20
workers 58 42 +16
without jobs 63 37 +26

C) BY STATUTE

Private job 37 63 -26
Public job 62 38 +24
work for him 50 50 =
unemployed 73 27 +46
Inactive 63 37 +26

D) BY THE LAST DIPLOMA OBTAINED
Inférieur au Bac 57 43 +14
Bac et plus 59 41 +18

E) BY PARTISANSHIP

LO + LCR + PC (extreme left) 41 59 -18
Parti Socialiste 66 34 +32
Les Verts 71 29 +42
UDF 73 27 +46
UMP 76 24 +52
FN + MNR (extreme right) 26 74 -48
No parties 47 53 -6


3) My COMMENTS

A) The fall of the "yes" is confirmed and the momentum is in favor of  "no".

B) I have problems with some results of this poll concerning workers and employed. In 1992, they voted against the treaty of Maastricht...

[Umengus]

Umengus, am I right in thinking that the numbers for yes and no are in % of those who have an opinion, that is minus the abstentions (who=undecideds?)?

Thus I get something along the lines of:

Yes: 40%

No: 27%

Undecideds: 33%

Would that be correct?

An ifop poll (3 & 4 february879) gave:

yes: 25%
no: 20%
undecideds: 46%
abstention: 9%

It's a way to make... But I think that others polls try to push the undecideds and, in fact, ifop too: Ifop says 44% of undecideds say to tend towards the "yes", 28% to tend towards the "no" 28% to tend towards abstention.

Hence:

-yes: 25%+20,24%=45,24%
-no: 20%+12,88=32,88%
-abstention: 9%+12,88%= 21,88%

The abstention doesn't count, hence:

-yes: 45/78= 57%
-no: 32/78= 43%           

The fall of the "yes"...

[Umengus]

2 last polls

1) Sofres

9,10 march size: 1000

A) Are you interested by the referendum?

yes: 47%
no: 53%

B) Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 56%
no: 44%

no votes expressed: 37%

C) Are you sure of your opinion?

yes: 64% (76% for "yes" and 82% for "no")
no: 34% (23% for yes and 17% for no)

D) Who will win?

"yes" in a landslide: 13%
short win of the "yes": 55%
short win of the "no": 8%
"no" in a landslide: 5%

no opinion: 19%

2) BVA

7,9 march size: unknow

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 56% (-2%)
no: 44% (+2%)

undecided: 42%

turnout: 68%

[Umengus]

And now the first poll which shows a "no" win

CSA, 16 & 17 march, 802

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 49% (-14)
no: 51% (+14)

abstention, blank,...53% (-6)

Details on http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2005/opi20050317a.pdf


1) It's the panic among "yes" supporters.
2) This poll has a great publicity in France (it opens somes TV news). And I think that the campaign has just started. 
3) Why a surge of the "no"? because of th Bolkestein directive and the social protestation against liberalism. You can indeed observe that the rise of the "yes" is among left voters (59% of socialist are against, before it was 60% of socialists in favor of the constitution.). Too, this poll seems to me a little outlier... but it's the newest. Then...

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

18,19 march, 860

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 48% (-12)
no: 52% (+12)

24% refuse to give their vote (but will vote)

Turnout: 62%

DETAILS

1) left (socialist, green, communist,...): yes: 45% (-9)
                                                             no: 55% (+9)

2) right (UMP,UDF): yes:67% (-5)
                               no: 33% (+5)

3) "extreme right" (FN): yes: 14% (-34)
                                       no: 86% (+34) Be careful: The size is small for this subgroup!

[Umengus]

CSA poll

03/23 (after the EU council), 856

1) Do you approve the EU contitution?

yes: 45% (-4)
no: 55% (+4)

abstention, blank votes,...: 50% (-3)

DETAILS

-left: yes: 42% (-1)
         no: 58% (+1)

    -socialist: yes: 46%
                   no: 54%
    -green: yes: 45%
                no: 55%

-right: yes: 59% (-5)
           no: 41% (+5)

     -UDF: yes: 71%
               no: 29%
      -UMP: yes: 61%
               no: 39%

2) For the "no" voters, why do you want to vote "no"? (2 answers possible)

-Opposition to the Turquey in UE: 31%
-An Europe more social: 29%
-To want a renegociation: 26%
-General dissatisfaction: 22%
-A vote against Chirac and Raffarin: 20%
-against Europe: 15%
...


3) For the "yes" voters, why do you want to vote "yes"? (2 answers possible)

-In favor of Europe : 46%
-Important for Europe to have a constitution: 36%
-New rules needed because of the new members: 26%
- To maintain the influence of France: 19%
...

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

03/15-18, 616 FARMERS

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 13% (-10)
-no: 30% (+9)
-Don't know: 42% (=)
-Abstention: 12% (-2)

[Umengus]

When do they actually vote on this again?

05/29

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

March 25,26  sample: 944

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 46% (-2)
no: 54% (+2)
Don't know: 31% (+7?)

Turnout: 48% (-14?)

DETAILS

-left: yes: 42%
         no: 58%

       -PS (socialists): yes:47%
                                 no: 53%

-right: yes: 67%
           no: 33%

        -UMP (Presidential majority): yes: 70%
                                                       no: 30%

-"extreme right": yes: 20%
                            no: 80%


Is it your final vote?

-for "yes" voters: yes: 72%
                            no: 28%

-for "no" voters: yes: 70%
                           no: 30%

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

March 24 sample: 817

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 47%
no: 53%

Do not decide: 18%

(I don't know abstention. +- 50% I suppose. Wait for more)

DETAILS

By party id:

PS (socialists): yes: 55%
                        no: 45%

UMP (right): yes: 77%
                    no: 23%

UDF (center-right): yes: 55%
                               no: 45%

Extreme left: yes: 34%
                      no: 66%

Communists: yes: 25%
                      no: 75%

Green: yes: 39%
            no: 61%

"Extreme right": yes: 26%
                           no: 74%

"No partisanship": yes: 30%
                              no: 70%

Are you sure of your vote?

yes: 54%
no: 46%

Who will win?

yes: 49%
no: 38%
Don't know: 13%

Methodology: by phone and sample selected by quotas (sex, age,...) method.

[Umengus]

Looking close

and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

[Umengus]

Looking close

and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

What do you care' Your Belgian?
Is the belgian interest in French politics part of an inferiority complex?

You know, Belgium is a great country on the international scene. Don't you know Louis "Big loulou" Michel, my former foreign minister? a center-right but good guy.

To be serious, I like France as I like USA. Politics in theses countries is very interessant and attractive. And I live in Wallonie, a "French speak" territory, next to France. I read the french newspapers, I watch french TVs,... Wallonie is under the French influence.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

03/31 & 04/01,  sample: 868

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 45 (-2)
-no: 55 (+2)

Are your sure of your vote?

-"yes voters": yes: 62%
-"no voters": yes: 64%

Methodology: by phones +quota method (as usual)

More coming soon...

[Umengus]

Odds are mounting against EU constitution
by Allister Heath, Economics Editor
March 13, 2005 12:00 AM (GMT)
THERE is a two-thirds chance that the European Constitution will fail to be ratified in all 25 European Union (EU) member states, a report from a leading investment bank warns this weekend.

The report, based on complex calculations from Morgan Stanley, comes at a time when the markets have yet to price the chances of a "No" vote on the euro and bond yields in one of nine remaining referendums.

Eric Chaney, of Morgan Stanley, said: "At this stage, it is reasonable to assume that the constitution will not pass at least one of the referendums."

Even if the French vote "Yes" in two months, the odds on full ratification remain less than 50%, according to Chaney's complicated probability analysis. France will hold its referendum on 29 May. This will be followed by the Netherlands three days later. Despite growing anxiety from the "Yes" camp in France, most analysts still expect the electorate to agree to the constitution, partly because the "No" camp lacks resources. The "No" side seems to be gaining ground in the traditionally europhile Netherlands.

In Poland, the main issue could be the participation rate, which must hit more than 50% for the referendum to be valid.

Chaney said: "So far, financial markets do not seem to have paid much attention to the constitution. A 'No' vote would be negative for the euro and would concentrate investors' minds on country-specific risks, based on the relative size of the national debt. However, excessive volatility on the euro and country credit spreads would open interesting reverse trade opportunities for investors taking a long-term view."

Link: http://thebusinessonline.com/33223/Odds_are_mounting_against_EU_constitution

[Umengus]

Looking close

and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

What do you care' Your Belgian?
Is the belgian interest in French politics part of an inferiority complex?

You know, Belgium is a great country on the international scene. Don't you know Louis "Big loulou" Michel, my former foreign minister? a center-right but good guy.

To be serious, I like France as I like USA. Politics in theses countries is very interessant and attractive. And I live in Wallonie, a "French speak" territory, next to France. I read the french newspapers, I watch french TVs,... Wallonie is under the French influence.

Can you speak vlaams?

een beetje

[Umengus]

Louis harris poll

March 24 & 26, sample: 400 "executives" (I hope that the translation is correct. In France, we speak "cadres" (people working at a good nevel of (public or not) companies)).

Do you prefer a "yes win" or a "no win"??

-A "yes win": 56% (-11)
-A "no win": 34% (+15)
-Don't know (or refuse to give their vote): 10% (-4)

Public executives: a "yes win": 42% (-14)
                             a "no win": 47% (+18)

Private executives: a "yes win": 66% (-8)
                               a "no win": 25% (+13)

Methodology: by phones and quotas method

[Umengus]

Umengus, is that last poll is of people like corporate executives and mid to high ranking public officials?

yes it is.

[Umengus]

1) Louis Harris poll
 
April 1 & 2, sample: 1004

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 46%
-no: 54%

-34% "refuse" to give their vote (but say that they will vote)

Are your sure of your vote?

-yes: 55%
-no: 35%
-don't know: 10%

Do you have a good opinion of President Jacques Chirac (last survey: Feb 25 & 26)?

-yes: 42% (-3)
-no: 51%(+5)
-no opinion: 7% (-2)

Do you have a good opinion of PM Jean Pierre Raffarin?

-yes: 28% (-7)
-no: 65% (+8)
-no opinion: 7% (-1)

2) CSA poll

March 30 & 31, sample: 865

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (+2)
-no: 53% (-2)

Abstention, blank votes,...: 51% (+1)

DETAILS

By party id (be careful, the size of some subgroups is weak)

Extreme left voters: yes: 44%
                                no: 56%
Left voters: yes: 42%
                   no: 58%
         
          -communists: yes: 16%
                                no: 84%
          -socialists: yes: 46%
                             no: 54%
          -Green: yes: 41%
                         no: 59%
Right voters: yes: 66%
                     no: 34%
             -UDF: yes: 71%
                       no: 29%
             -UMP: yes: 69%
                        no: 31%

"Extreme right": yes: 43%
                           no: 57%

Without party id: yes: 36%
                            no: 64%

3) Ipsos poll

April 1 & 2, sample: 947

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 48% (+2)
-no: 52% (-2)

-27% will vote but don't expressed a vote

Abstention: 50%

DETAILS

Left: yes: 42%
       no: 58%

   -socialists: yes: 47%
                     no: 53%

Right: yes: 72%
          no: 28%

   -UMP: yes: 74%
            no: 26%

Extreme right: yes: 14%
                        no: 86%

DETAILS

Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 74%
-no: 26%

    -for "yes voters": yes: 81%
                                 no: 19%

    -for "no voters": yes: 68%
                               no: 32%

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

1 & 2 april, sample: 910

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47%
-no: 53%

Are you interested by the referendum?

-yes: 64%  ( 30%++  34%+)
-no: 36% (20%-  10%--)


50% are sure of their vote (25% "yes voters" and 25% "no voters")
17% can change their vote (7% "yes voters", 10 % "no voters")
33% don't expressed their vote.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

8 & 9 april (last: 1 & 2 april), sample: 953

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-1)
-no: 53% (+1)

21% will vote but don't expressed their vote (-6).
Turnout: 49% (-1)

DETAILS

A) By party id:

-left (communists+green+socialist): yes: 40% (-2)
                                                         no: 60% (+2)

        -socialist: yes: 48% (+1)
                        no: 52% (-1)

-right (UDF, UMP): yes: 66% (-6)
                             no: 34% (+6)

        -UMP (Party of Chirac, Raffarin): yes: 68% (-6)
                                                           no: 32% (+6)

-extreme right: yes: 25% (+9)
                         no: 75% (-9) (the size of this sub-group is small in the poll)

(extreme left: unknown)

B)  is it your final vote?

-yes: 60% (+6) (yes voters: 76% (-5))
                           no voters: 76% (+8)

-no, I can still change my vote: 19% (=)
                          (yes voters: 24% (+5))
                            no voters: 24% (-8)

-Don't pronounce: 21% (-6)

C) Do you prefer a "yes win" or a "no win"?

-a "yes win": 40% (=)
-a "no win": 43% (+5)
-don't pronounce: 17% (-5)

D) If it's a "no win", do you think that there will be a re-negociation of the Constitution?

-yes: 63%
-no: 27%
-Don't pronounce: 10%

[Umengus]

1) CSA poll

6 & 7 april (last poll: 30 & 31 march), sample: 883

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 46% (-1)
-no: 54% (+1)

Abstention: 48% (-3)

DETAILS (be very careful)

By party id

-left voters: yes: 40% (-2)
                    no: 60% (+2)
          -socialists: yes: 44% (-2)
                            no: 56% (+2)
          -Green: yes: 39% (-2)
                       no: 61% (+2)

-right voters: yes: 69% (+3)
                      no: 31% (-3)
           -UMP: yes: 78% (+9)
                     no: 22% (-9)
           -UDF: yes: 61% (-10)
                     no: 39% (+10)

2) BVA poll

8 & 9 april (last poll: 7-9 march), sample: 800

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-9)
-no: 53% (+9)

Abstention: 28%

DETAILS (Be very careful)

A) By party id

-extreme left+Communists: yes: 29%
                                            no: 71%
-left voters (without communists): yes: 41%
                                                       no: 59%
         -socialists: yes: 43%
                           no: 57%
         -green: yes: 45%
                      no: 55%

-right voters: yes: 58%
                      no: 42%
          -UMP: yes: 68%
                     no: 32%
          -UDF: yes: 61%
                    no: 39%

-extreme right voters: yes: 12%
                                    no: 88%

-without party id: yes: 43%
                             no: 57%
               

Comments: Every pollsters give now the "no" before the "yes" (the "no" between 52-55%). But there are still lots of undecideds voters and the referendum will happen 05/29. Hence, the game is not over...

Tomorrow, President Chirac will defend the "yes" at the TV. He will answer to questions of youth people. It will not be a debate (against a "no" leader) because Chirac is a coward...

[Umengus]

CSA poll

12 & 13 april, sample: 795

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 45% (-1)
-no: 55% (+1)

Abstention: 48% (=)

[Umengus]

CSA poll

April 15 (after the "Chirac show" on the first channel in France (7 300 000 people watched. Good result)), sample: 1001

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 44% (-1)
-no: 56%(+1)

Abstention: 45% (-3)

Was Jacques Chirac convincing (sample: people who watched or intended to speak about his show)?

-yes: 40%
-no: 51%

-Did not say: 9%

IFOP poll

April 15 (after...) (last ifop poll: march 24), sample: 1010

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 44% (-3)
-no: 56% (+3)

Did not say: 12% (-6)

DETAILS

A) By party id (be careful...)

-extreme left: not in this poll

-communists: yes: 8%
                      no: 92%
-socialists: yes: 38%
                  no: 62%
-Green: yes: 38%
             no: 62%

-UDF: yes: 79%
          no: 21%
-UMP: yes: 72%
          no: 28%

-Extreme right: yes: 4%
                        no: 96%

B) Are your sure of your vote?

-yes: 69% (+15)
-no: 31% (-12)

-Did not say: 0% (-3)

 For" yes voters": -yes: 66%
                             -no: 34%

 For "no voters": -yes: 71%
                           -no: 29%

C) After the "Chirac show", wat is your feeling?

-The show convinced me to vote yes: 5%
-The show convinced me to vote no: 5%

-I wanted to vote "yes" before the show and the show hadn't any effect: 31%
-I wanted to vote "no" before the show and the show hadn't any effect: 35%

-I still don't know wich will be my vote: 23%

-Did not say: 1%

Comments: I hope that's clear and that my english is not so bad. If these polls are correct, the Chirac Show could have been a very significant moment in the campaign. But there are still lots of undecided voters.