Early Voting thread.

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I'd be skeptical of mail in voting numbers too. Unless you live in a state that automatically mails you one, its not hard to imagine a good chunk of 2020 mail-in voters are just going to simplify things and vote in person. I know I am.

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25 days till the slaughter? Well thats unhinged.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

There’s one caveat here and that’s the fact that the covid caucus might now be willing to vote in person which could diminish democrats’ actual mail-in numbers. But if the total mail-in numbers start to approach 2020 numbers or if republicans approach their own totals for 2020 mail-ins and these patterns continue, I would call it.

We’ve also seen that the early/E-day disparity is wide as ever in the primaries so I don’t think democrats doing a 180 on vote method can explain all of it.

Can we though?

High propensity democrats are likely to vote early and by mail. Low propensity democrats would likely vote on election day? If enthusiasm is as high as polls are showing, there's probably alot of democrats who are just going to vote on election day. Myself included.

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25 days till the slaughter? Well thats unhinged.

He's a Doomer just like Snow Labrador

Oh. That makes sense. Its not wrong to think Republicans are favored, but going around and acting like everybody is an idiot for not seeing it, thats pretty gross in my opinion.

[HidingCommentary]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1580889276468064257

How is this special midterm looking?

There’s one caveat here and that’s the fact that the covid caucus might now be willing to vote in person which could diminish democrats’ actual mail-in numbers. But if the total mail-in numbers start to approach 2020 numbers or if republicans approach their own totals for 2020 mail-ins and these patterns continue, I would call it.

We’ve also seen that the early/E-day disparity is wide as ever in the primaries so I don’t think democrats doing a 180 on vote method can explain all of it.

Can we though?

High propensity democrats are likely to vote early and by mail. Low propensity democrats would likely vote on election day? If enthusiasm is as high as polls are showing, there's probably alot of democrats who are just going to vote on election day. Myself included.

Quinnipiac asked this question in a recent poll. It’s just one data point but they found:

Warnock winning mail voters 66-28
Warnock winning early in person 59-40
Walker winning E day 60-37

Thanks to 13% of democrats (vs 7% of republicans) voting by mail, and 42% of republicans (vs 20% of democrats) voting on E day. There’s a logical argument to be made that the difference will be less pronounced than 2020. There’s a logical argument to be made that a bunch of first time voters will stumble into the polls on E day. But there’s no indication that the vote method split has completely subsided. If it’s 42-38 in Florida the entire time, the entire Republican ticket will win by literally double digits.

Only if democrats are voting a majority by mail. If we've gone back to somewhat normal voting habits, that's pretty on par for past Florida elections.