2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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I'm not quite sure I get the recent comparisons between this year and 2014, atleast when it comes to polling. Polling was incredibly messy in 2014. We had multiple high quality polls showing both large Republican generic ballot leads and small Democratic leads. You'd get a +7 Republican poll and a +1 Democrat poll in the same week. This year though, we've seen no evidence of that.

You could argue multiple pollsters saw the writing on the wall while others did not in 2014, so if 2022 was in anyway similar to 2014, wouldn't we be seeing such a discrepancy? Outside of Trafalgar and Rasmussen that it.

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https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1576959314908282880?t=NMmzw3hFiYUO-m9YK1iHmQ&s=19

I clicked on the tweet hoping to find a good twitter account to see new polls but this one only posts Republican favorable ones. Shame.

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This is something to watch-

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1576957205441835008

Monmouth has had weird swings this year, had R+7 in January and then D+1 in March despite nothing happening in the news that would change anything. I still think there have been troubling signs for Dems the past week though.

I think Monmouth has been having a lot of trouble in general lately. They have some of the best methodology in the industry but they've been missing races just like everyone else. If we get a big miss in 2022 too, I think its clear evidence that any form of accurate telephone polling is near impossible in this day and age. 

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Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

R+2 among RV, 47-45. Really wanted to swing the other way from their D+7 last time lol.

Funny though, Monmouth lines up with Wapo. Wapo had 39/55 approval and R+1/5 and Monmouth has 38/55 approval R+2/3. However, both those are a decent bit off from the current avg (-9 approval)

Yeah, kind of strange how Monmouths ballot has gone from:

R+7 -> D+1 -> R+4 -> = -> D+7 = -> R+3

Wonder whats causing such huge shifts?

Edit: They were certainly off, but their generic ballot in 2020 was remarkably more stable.

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I've wondered for years why so many people follow RCP. It's been clear for as long as I can remember that they're a right-wing outlet.

Their aggregate is still okay, even though they seemingly have a biased towards which outlets get included and which don't.

Its also cool that they keep their old aggregates from prior elections up. Being able to look through +20 years of election polling is a really handy resource.