I did exceptionally well with bold predictions this year, so I'll go ahead and do it again, why not: 51-49 D. GOP takes WV and nothing else, we gain TX. As a very specific side bet, I also wager the Democrats regain the House relatively easily, and after the election they finally stake the filibuster through the heart on account of Sinema being primaried and Manchin losing.
While I agree with the notion that Democrats could hold the Senate after 2024 by virtue of people like Brown & Tester winning again (using the same campaigning strategies they've used in the past), I do question the notion of the filibuster being automatically eliminated with Manchin & Sinema out of the picture - are you sure that people like Carper, Coons, Menendez, Shaheen, Warner, etc. won't morph into what Manchin & Sinema are today? Additionally, Tester has indicated that while he currently supports carve-outs for the filibuster on issues like abortion rights, voting rights, etc., AFAIK he hasn't yet thrown his support behind its full abolition just yet.
I feel like getting the trifecta back will mobilize Democratic leadership to rally the troops around getting rid of their biggest obstacle to policymaking. Carper and Coons especially would be loyal to Biden, who obviously wants it out of the way; Shaheen and Warner are stalwart party loyalists; and Tester is actually pretty progressive underneath his Moderate Montanan(tm) electoral persona.
Naturally, I could be wrong, but it's sort of what I feel at this point in time.
