I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.
1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.
2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.
I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.
I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.
I can see that being the worst-case scenario for him. I don't believe the 13-14 point polls.
Something doesn't smell right about PA polling right now as I've said in another thread for a variety of reasons.
Firstly, the divide between Senate and Gov seems way too large. An 11% difference in margin seems way too large, even if Mastriano is terrible, just given Pennsylvania's relative polarization and nationalization in the media.
Secondly, Fetterman outright falling from 51.2% to 46.6% doesn't seem right. Yes, i would expect Oz to consolidate the R base and hence increse his own %, but that sort of drop on Fetterman's part takes some HUGE scandal which there has not been. The stroke def had an impact but would not justify that large of a change.
Also, can we just consider 11% is about what Casey won by in a super D leaning year against a nobody? 2022 is just likely to be less favorable overall so idk if an 11% win would be possible for Shapiro with the electorate that shows up.
Consider that Tom Wolf sent Tom Corbett to the shadow realm by just shy of double digits in a horribly unfriendly year. Yeah, Corbett was unpopular, but he was an incumbent running in what should have been a good year for him. 2022 is almost surely not going to be as Republican as 2014 and Mastriano is
way worse than Corbett, so I personally think a low to mid double digit Shapiro victory isn't at all out of the question.
