2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dani Rose]

I'm beginning to suspect that the GOP surge last week might have been certain pollsters overreacting to a relatively lackluster week of early voting for us.

[Dani Rose]

This GCB nonsense is not doing anything to challenge my belief that the lunatic ups and downs in polling this year are literally just the result of an unprecedented gaggle of terrible polling firms.

I just want one reputable company to put out polls. Just one, even one single time before the election. That's it. I don't care what the result is, I just want one set of numbers that aren't kooky-dukes one single time before E-Day.

[Dani Rose]

Even though I'm stubbornly wearing the armor of unstoppable optimism with regard to this election, I genuinely understand why people here are worried - about most of the country. But the dooming I'm seeing with regard to California and Washington is just silly. I highly doubt that the GOP's 2022 platform of "no regulation on the economy, all regulation in your pants" is what's going to finally break the dam for them in the West Coast.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1586804261874188288?cxt=HHwWgICy0bSEu4...

Literally just lighting money on fire. Yes, Brownley's district could be competitive, but the other two just straight-up aren't happening.

[Dani Rose]

Is Democrats internal polling varying wildly from public polling or something?

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1587504980445085700

Running up the numbers, I think, plus what was said above me about using excess funding for whatever good it can still do. I imagine the wave of awful GOP-aligned polling has also given some incumbents at least a little pause for thought, as hugely unlikely as it is that they actually lose.

[Dani Rose]

Civiqs looks like it's gonna end up with D+3, 50-47

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

They have:

18-34: D+20 (57-37)
35-49: D+6 (51-45)
50-64: R+8 (52-44)
65+: D+4 (51-47)

Females: D+18 (57-39)
Males: R+14 (55-41)
Independents: R+4 (48-44)

Whites: R+15 (56-41)
Blacks: D+80 (88-8)
Hispanic/Latino: D+27 (61-34)

My favorite gender.