What could be the “surprise” of this election

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I'm not predicting this, but Biden winning Florida is a candidate for a "surprise" result, something that no one sees coming at the time but kinda makes sense in hindsight like your 2020 and 2016 examples.

They voted for Biden to be VP twice, and it's not like Trump won it handily either time. Plus they're in the 6 year itch of a divisive and controversial governor who just majorly flopped on the national scene. And the demographics where Biden has improved the most in "polls" (who knows how valid those are) seems to be Jews and white seniors. Finally, the Florida Democratic Party has hit rock bottom and will have to start improving by default because they can't possibly sink any lower.

I think Trump still probably takes it, but it's not hard to plot out a scenario for Biden