I would bet money that as goes Ohio, as goes the nation.
It'll be the Florida (2000) of 2004.
I suppose that I can aggree with what you are saying, but I see it difficult to imagine Ohio going to a Dem unless it was a major Bush loss. (By at least 4% in the popular vote)
True. It seems likely now that Ohio and the nation
are going to Bush (still months to go; so much can change either way)
If Bush wins Ohio, that means things are going as they should and Bush will be reelected.
If Kerry wins Ohio, then he'll have won elsewhere presumably also and have won the election.