Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

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Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

[7,052,770]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

[7,052,770]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

Sure, but who would vote differently on the two? Is there anyone out there who opposes a ban but would vote Yes to amend the Constitution to make a ban possible? Or even less likely, vice versa?

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Interestingly, the only polling that was ever done for the amendment had it passing 47-43%.

That's a pretty big miss.

https://coefficient.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/KS-VTB-Amendment-7.18.pdf

Same thing happened in Mississippi in 2011. The "Yes" side was completely stunned to lose at all, much less in a landslide.

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There may be some kind of weird alt-"Bradley effect" in abortion polling where conservative people don't admit to pollsters that they will vote pro-choice and only do so in the privacy of the voting booth.