2022 conference realignment (7/6 rumors: Big 12 to add 4-6 Pac-12 teams?)

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We're about to see a Power 2 with the SEC and Big 10 having 20-24 teams each. I would expect at least Oregon and Washington to follow to the Big 10, probably Colorado, Stanford, and at least 1 Arizona school as well.

The SEC could take the best ACC programs (some could look at Big 10 too) and maybe Oklahoma State.

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Further thoughts - I bet the Big 12 is regretting adding four non-power schools (Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, BYU) when some Pac-12 schools might be interested very soon.

If the ACC can somehow prevent itself from being raided by the Big 10 and SEC, maybe we see a Power Three instead, especially if the ACC is willing to add West Virginia, UCF, and Cincinnati itself (plus maybe like Houston and Baylor?). It would the clear third conference, but it would be "power."

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The ACC is tough to break since it’s (terrible) media contract guarantees all revenue from its current schools stays with the conference until 2036. Whoever took an ACC program would be committing itself to a fiscal deadweight until then.

There's always a way out of everything. I believe it takes 10 (?) votes to change the ACC financial rules, so the Big 10 and SEC could offer slots to 5 teams each.

I don't know that they will or they should, but something like this seems possible:
Big 10 - Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech (would the SEC agree to let the Big 10 into Atlanta? Maybe Miami instead)
SEC - Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami (or Georgia Tech)

You could also see Pitt going to either, Louisville to the SEC, and obviously either would crawl over broken glass to take Notre Dame.

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If the Big 10 decides to make more Pac-12 teams, these are the tiers I think they would be on:

TIER ONE - I think these schools are probably Big 10 bound.
1. Stanford - Academic powerhouse, good football program large market.
2. Washington - See above, but a little lesser on all 3.
3. Oregon - Great football program and passionate fanbase. Also the "cool" factor

TIER TWO - Decent chance they go to the Big 10, or at least the Big 12.
4. Colorado - Great market and academics, and a bridge to the Western schools.

TIER THREE - A possibility they end up in the Big 10, and worse case they ought to have a Big 12 life raft if necessary.
5. California - Great on every measurable, except they don't have any fans who would care
6. Arizona - Close to a wash between them and the Sun Devils, but Arizona is AAU
7. Arizona State - However, Phoenix is the more desirable market
8. Utah - Nothing special on the measurables, but I think it's at least possible the Big 10 is interested.

TIER FOUR - Probably headed to the Mountain West unless all of the Tier 1/2 teams stay.
9. Washington State - At least they are the most popular team in half of a state.
10. Oregon State - Sorry Beavers.

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I could live with a system where the SEC has 24-30 schools in the Southeast and the Big 10 has 24-30 schools in the rest of the country, and those are the only 2 conferences in the top division, with full NIL and paid players. Each league would have their own semifinals (maybe top , and then the two champions meet in a college Super Bowl (maybe alternating between Pasadena and New Orleans?). That sounds like a whole lot of fun.

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Also, this would probably help balance out the horrendous imbalance between divisions in the Big Ten... Now you have USC/Wisconsin (UCLA could make the big time with some rehab) as a counterweight to Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State in the East. No more Minnesota or Northwestern runs in the West. As for time zone, a middle ground between Central and Pacific Time isn't that bad. Nobody cares about Rutgers and Maryland anyway.

West	Central	East
Arizona	Illinois	Indiana
California	Wisconsin	Maryland
Colorado	Iowa	Michigan
Oregon	Kansas	Michigan State
Stanford	Minnesota	Ohio State
UCLA	Missouri (!!)	Penn State
USC	Nebraska	Purdue
Washington	Northwestern	Rutgers

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Honestly, Missouri's happy in the SEC, even if they are really out of place from a sports perspective.

I'd suggest Louisville instead (they could slot into either the Central or the East, given their location on the Ohio River).

Yeah, as long as the money is better in the SEC, I think Missouri's staying. But the definitely have more of the "feel" of a Big 10 school, and I don't think any SEC fanbase would be sad to see them go.

If ACC schools are available, the SEC and Big 10 are going to have a huge brawl over a whole bunch of them, with North Carolina, Virginia, and Notre Dame as the biggest targets.

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Another thing to remember is that the Pac-12 was one of the biggest opponents of the failed 12-team CFP model with autobids. That stance made no sense then (given how rarely Pac-12 teams make the 4-team playoff) and is even worse now.

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I think a Pac-12/Big 12 merger would be a pretty smart move. Obviously a 22-team conference is unwieldy, but we know a lot of teams would be trying to get out ASAP, and it would provide a haven for the teams who aren't able to join the SEC or Big 10 (or ACC) and stay a quasi-relevant second tier conference. Also, if the Pac-12 and Big 12 don't merge and each add a bunch of MWC/AAC teams to reload, the conferences won't be any better, but there will be more "Power" mouths to feed. If you can't be in one of the two real power conferences, you might as well keep the ACC/Big 12/Pac-12 tier smaller.

The conference would look like this, which is quite expansive.


However, I think it's very likely that Washington, Oregon, and Stanford are headed to the Big 10. If West Virginia, Cincinnati, and UCF could be pawned off to the ACC, you would have a decent set of schools left with 16 total teams.


With this 16 team alignment, you could still weather some defections. If Kansas, Colorado, or Cal manage to get into the Big 10, you're OK. Maybe the Arizona schools find a new home (... SEC ?!?!). There will always be Mountain West schools to call up if necessary, but this way you're calling them from a group of 10-14, not just Washington State and Oregon State begging 10 teams to come join them.

Maybe the politicians in Oregon and Washington should make UW and UO push for this on their way out, as a liferaft to the 2 schools who are very unlikely to get called to the Big 10.

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The Big Ten says they're done expanding -- for now -- after USC & UCLA.

I expect something to happen anyway. Both the SEC and Big 10 would have denied everything until the day of their recent announcements.

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The ACC is tough to break since it’s (terrible) media contract guarantees all revenue from its current schools stays with the conference until 2036. Whoever took an ACC program would be committing itself to a fiscal deadweight until then.

There's always a way out of everything. I believe it takes 10 (?) votes to change the ACC financial rules, so the Big 10 and SEC could offer slots to 5 teams each.

I don't know that they will or they should, but something like this seems possible:
Big 10 - Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech (would the SEC agree to let the Big 10 into Atlanta? Maybe Miami instead)
SEC - Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami (or Georgia Tech)

You could also see Pitt going to either, Louisville to the SEC, and obviously either would crawl over broken glass to take Notre Dame.

Doesn't the Big 10 have some education/research qualifications?  Can Miami meet those?

Not sure exactly on research, but in the USNWR (which are not the only rankings, nor are they gospel) has Miami as the #55 university in America, which is a little bit worse than Purdue and Ohio State and a little bit better than Maryland, Penn State, and Rutgers.

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There are a bunch of rumors flying around today that the Big 12 will meet tomorrow and invite Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State.

And then we're left with a Pac-6, although with it have some desirable programs left. I think at that point the best bet is for those 6 to merge with the Mountain West, but with an escape clause for all of them that lets them leave at no penalty.

How would our fans of those Pac-6 schools feel about this? Would Stanford have a total meltdown and drop athletics altogether? Would they want to expand it to include Rice or even a high quality public like UCSD or UC Davis?

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Imagine a 24-team Big 10 and a 24-team SEC, each divided into 4 divisions of 6.

Everyone plays a 13-game schedule: 5 against their division, rotate 2 of the teams of the other 3 divisions, have one permanent (or semi-permanent) opponent out of the division, and play 1 game against the other conference.

Then, each conference takes 4-8 teams to a playoff, with the winners of each bracket squaring off for the national championship in the Rose Bowl.

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The third "power conference" ?



There are plenty of Mountain West schools still out there as replacements if anyone jumps ship to the SEC or Big 10. They still need to find a way to dump the 3 Eastern schools if they can.