Puerto Rico statehood referendum 2020

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I didn't see a thread on this already. Any data on how likely this is to pass? It's a straight up Yes/No vote on statehood, unlike the more convoluted votes PR has had over the past decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum

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This is me speculating, but the fact that Biden has promised to honor the result of the referendum surely will help, since Puerto Ricans who really want statehood may be more likely to turn out, since they know (or at least have reason to hope) they'll actually become a state if it passes.

This leads to a second question -- if it does pass in November, what's the timeline? It looks like Alaska and Hawaii took about 5-6 months from Eisenhower singing the admission law to actually becoming a state, so maybe a target date of July 4, 2021?

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Do you think hatred of Trump might dampen support for the statehood side?

If hatred of Trump drives anything, wouldn't it make people vote Yes to stick it to him?

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Did they not poll statehood?

They've just released the numbers for that: https://www.elvocero.com/politica/favorecen-el-voto-por-la-estadidad/article_52a56dee-0eb0-11eb-bc51-af7b850d1a3a.html

September 21 - October 6
2041 adults
MoE: 2%

Yes 42%
No 27%
Would not vote 14%
Not sure 17%

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Did they not poll statehood?

They've just released the numbers for that: https://www.elvocero.com/politica/favorecen-el-voto-por-la-estadidad/article_52a56dee-0eb0-11eb-bc51-af7b850d1a3a.html

September 21 - October 6
2041 adults
MoE: 2%

Yes 42%
No 27%
Would not vote 14%
Not sure 17%

Or this:



I actually wouldn't mind seeing a more radical redesign for the US flag. I'm not talking about removing or adding anything (apart from adding stars for states), but the stars and stripes could be reconfigured.

All for it. And let's not forget our countrymen living in the Marianas.

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I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Agree. In developed countries you don't get to boycott an election and have it not count.

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I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

Agreed. I also expect a lot of Republicans, including Rubio, Scott, and Murkowski, to vote for it, so it's not like it's going to be some one-sided power grab. And they might elect Republicans to Congress anyway, and that's OK too.

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I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

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I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

There is an alternative. Either become a state or don't. Majority wins. In every election, the loser is pissed off, especially the people who supported the loser but for whatever reason failed to cast a vote that may have flipped the result.

In fairness, I think the Puerto Rico statehood question should be tabled for at least 15 years if No wins. It shouldn't be a "Keep voting until they decide to be a state" kind of thing.

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So it looks like PR is either impossible to poll, or some or all of the pollsters are blatantly pushing their agenda. We'll find out soon.

I saw on Twitter where Rubio is encouraging a Yes vote, so maybe we see Republicans admit PR in December to try to make a play for their votes? If it's happening anyway, you might as well try to claim credit for it.

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What chances does it have in, say, a 51-49 or 52-48 GOP Senate?  Would Rubio and Scott go as far as to ally with Democrats on the procedural votes needed to shove McConnell out of the way and admit PR? (Or maybe the Democratic flop with Hispanic voters will convince Republicans they've got a shot?)

It doesn't seem like there's much of a boycott this time. 95% of gubernatorial voters are voting in the statehood referendum.

Maybe if the parties make an agreement that only Republicans will run for one senate seat, and only Democrats for the other? This would only apply to the 2021 elections of course - anything later could go either way.

It's not very Democratic to deny Puerto Ricans the right to have whatever senators they want for its first few years as a state, but it takes the Senate balance question off the table. Maybe a backdoor compromise could be reached between all the power brokers?