Survivor megathread

[7,052,770]

https://www.justjared.com/2023/03/17/survivor-contestant-calls-out-winner-turned-politician-nick-wilson-for-voting-to-pass-anti-trans-anti-gay-legislation/

Unlikely we ever see Nick on the show again after he voted for Kentucky's brutal anti-trans bill. Honestly he is in the same tier as Jeff Varner going forward.

We get it, any remotely conservative people should be banned from all media, and wanting to prevent experiments on minors is as bad as outing someone on national TV and trying to profit off of it with a book. In any case, I doubt Survivor wants to cast any partisan politicians.

Yes, any politician who casts a vote to ban ALL gender affirming care, regardless of reversibility or parental approval, including destransitioning of trans teens who've already started the process, is a bad person.

And I'll give you a free pass for not realizing that Varner is as anti-trans as any Republican politician (check out his social media) and would have voted Yes if he was a legislator, but Nick is still worse since it is not a mere hypothetical for him.

[7,052,770]

I'm going to disagree and say that I think Nick was one of the most likely WaW cast members to have a return (probably in the top 3), even after his election to the Kentucky House. It's only this particular bill and the reaction to it from Survivor cast members that have tanked his chances, probably permanently. Historically he's gotten along very well with the LGBT community, including for example Ricard and his trans husband, which is why everyone is so shocked he voted for this bill. Maybe he didn't really realize how extensive the effects of the bill are, but that doesn't strike me as a very good excuse.

[7,052,770]

5 episodes in, this season's already crazy.

The craziest part of it is that Carolyn is ... actually playing really well so far and has a knack for strategy?? Didn't see that coming back in episode 1.

[7,052,770]

Also the season of Australian Survivor that ended was pretty good, if anyone else here keeps up with that. I don't think I liked it quite as much as a lot of online people did, but the editing wasn't as atrocious as the last few seasons, and the cast wasn't as insufferable as last year (actually, last season was fine until Sandra got voted off on day 16 yet again after a bad swap).

[7,052,770]

They've got to change the puzzles up going forward. Maybe Jeff Probst thinks it's cool when someone makes their own versions of the puzzles and knows how to solve it ahead of time, but it really breaks the game.

[7,052,770]

Challenges are one area where the Australian version is better** than the American version for the most part. Jeff Probst should hire that team to design and build challenges. You'd get physical, puzzles, and the auction (!) but not this same stuff repeated year after year.



** - Except for the elephant in the room, where 3 of the last 5 seasons have featured a challenge breaking and forcing a medevac at no fault to the contestants, as well as the most iconic character of the show's history nearly breaking his neck because the challenge involved people going face-first into a shallow mud pit. That was really dumb. So maybe use the Australian team to design challenges, but with the American version's higher safety standards.

[7,052,770]

Rob C. made the point on the podcast if they'd never done the "merge" but instead dissolved to 2 tribes at 12 and then had a surprise "swap" at 11, we'd be at the same place without as much hate, and while he's kinda right, I still wouldn't love that at all.

Ultimately, there's no need to take away the gameplay from the players, especially when modern Survivor is casting 100% superfans anyway. Just let 'em play it out!

(And come up with some new puzzles - this can't be emphasized enough!)

[7,052,770]

The play was so stupid. You put votes on one of the three and then make it a tie, I doubt Brandon would have used his idol on anyone but him and then they’d switch or go to rocks.

And if you put the vote on Jamie, Lauren might just let her go and hold on to the extra vote rather than risking it just for a rock draw.

[7,052,770]

I'm not really sure who my winner prediction is at this point. I feel like Carson, Carolyn, and Yam Yam are all getting a "winner's edit" to some degree, and as we've seen recently, you can win without even getting one of those, so a Lauren win doesn't seem totally out of the question.

[7,052,770]

I'm fine with the ending, but (as I've said before, I think) the idea that it's good for someone to give up Immunity to take someone else to fire is crazy. It's a very reckless move, and not one that the jury should ever reward. I'll go so far to say if I ever get on the show, I'll make it known that if I'm on the jury, I'll never vote for a finalist who does that, even if they win.

The show has spent decades dunking on Eric for giving up immunity, but suddenly juries expect contestants to do it? To the point where not doing it probably cost Cassidy the game (or maybe the jury was just making excuses, we'll never know) or applauding Heidi for doing it.

Anyway, I think the key move of the game was Yam-Yam helping out Carson with the fire. That had to play big in getting Carson's jury vote, and it felt like Carson was pushing the jury pretty hard toward Yam-Yam. Interestingly, this is the 4th straight season of a 7-1 final vote.

[7,052,770]

Also, you could have a solid returnee season just with 0-vote finalists now, that fits all casting requirements.

[7,052,770]

As far as the chart goes, I think we might have our first ever clean sweep. None of the 18 contestants strike me as likely to be Republican. Danny is probably the most likely, but given his age, hometown (NYC), and what seemed like an LGBT-positive attitude, I would lean toward Democratic.

If there is a "surprise" Republican, maybe Jamie would be the most likely? (Though I still would heavily lean to the Democratic side for her.) I wouldn't say the same for Heidi, as I believe Puerto Ricans living in the states are pretty Democratic, and she spoke about representing women and Latinas a lot in a way that a Republican probably wouldn't. (And Jamie didn't, for example, at least from what was aired.)

Everyone else seems to have at least 1 solid reason to suspect Democratic:

• Black - Bruce, Claire, Josh, Brandon, Lauren
• Culturally liberal-seeming young person from big city - Maddy, Helen, Claire, Sarah, Josh, Matt, Frannie, Carson
• LGBT - Claire, Matthew, Josh, Frannie (?), Carolyn, Yam-Yam
• Canadian - Kane

[7,052,770]

As far as the chart goes, I think we might have our first ever clean sweep...

I may have actually been wrong about that. Season 13 (Cook Islands) could have possibly been the first.

[7,052,770]

the reality is that 95 percent of the time, the jurors will just vote for the person they either like the best, or hate the least. And they will come up with any random sometimes assbackwards justification to do so. Even though if they just simply said "i just simply liked them the best and was probably always voting for them" I can guarantee 99 percent of the audience would eventually get over it.

Very rarely do jurors actually vote on strategy I have grown to realize. I think that's the issue with Gabler's win. Not the win itself but the fact the jury doesn't have the balls to say "I liked Gabler more than Cassidy and Owen, and was probably going to always vote for him as long as he showed a modicum of self awareness." If they simply would say it, nobody would care after the first 48 hours.

I agree with this. The jury just votes for whoever they want and makes up a justification if needed. Like, it's completely unreasonable to expect Cassidy to give up immunity to make fire against Jessie. 15 years ago, Erik give up immunity at the F5, got voted out, and we still laugh at how dumb he was 29 seasons later. If Cassidy had given up immunity and lost (or had Heidi lost in season 44), I really see no difference in that and what Erik did.

Of course, the flip side is that the jury wasn't "really" expecting her to do that. They just wanted to vote for Gabler and needed an excuse. If she'd done it, they would have made up some other reason to vote for Gabler.

Another example is that somehow 4 PREVIOUS WINNERS(!) voted for the first person voted out to win over Tony himself. There's no justification for that beyond "yeah, I just like Natalie better than Tony," but at least none of those 4 ever really denied it.

[7,052,770]

Looking forward to tonight's finale. While you could say that Dee seems like the obvious winner pick (in the same was Jesse was a year ago), I'm going to go way, way out on a limb and pick ... Jake. It's just the feeling I get in the back of my mind from watching the show.

[7,052,770]

Also for the second straight season, there's no need for a chart, because they all come across as Democrats.

[7,052,770]

Looking forward to tonight's finale. While you could say that Dee seems like the obvious winner pick (in the same was Jesse was a year ago), I'm going to go way, way out on a limb and pick ... Jake. It's just the feeling I get in the back of my mind from watching the show.

Oh, oops. 0 votes for Jake. I think he might have gotten some votes if Katurah hadn't ruined it at F5 for him.

[7,052,770]

Also, you could have a solid returnee season just with 0-vote finalists now, that fits all casting requirements.

Drop Spencer for Jake since Spencer has apparently gone completely insane.

[7,052,770]

Also for the second straight season, there's no need for a chart, because they all come across as Democrats.

I don't know, Dee is Cuban from Miami. And maybe Julie could be conservative?

Yeah, it's possible that Dee or Julie or someone else could be conservative. With 18 independent probabilities, I'm sure it's better than 50-50 that someone on the cast is and it's not an 18-0 clean sweep. But going person by person, I put all 18 as more likely Democratic than not. I could be wrong, though, since I'm not following anyone on social media or anything, just going by the general vibe.

[7,052,770]

Mississippi representing pretty well, with Hunter and Q seeming like strong early candidates for Sole Survivor. We'll see if it lasts.

[7,052,770]

After 2 episodes, here's how I'm putting everyone into tiers by their winning chances. I didn't put a huge amount of thought into these ratings, just kinda based on quick vibes:

Tier 1 - top contenders
1. Hunter - good at challenges, good socially, stays away from drama
2. Maria - well positioned in the tribe but probably won't be seen as a threat
3. Tiffany - well connected within the tribe, has an idol, seems like a good strategist with a good edit

Tier 2 - secondary contenders
4. Tevin - similar to Hunter, but not quite as smooth
5. Charlie - well-positioned, but will probably be 4th if it comes to his 4-person alliance
6. Moriah - getting subtlely good vibes from her

Tier 3 - dark horses
7. Venus - in a bad place currently but if she makes the merge or a swap could be really good
8. Ben - I'm a little worried in the short term for him, but seems like someone who could go far
9. Q - great on paper, but also a hothead who shouts at people
10. Jem - ??
11. Tim - ??
12. Kenzie - seems way too overconfident and full of herself

Tier 4 - seem like big longshots already
13. Soda - I just don't see her going far
14. Liz - weird vibes from her
15. Randen - outside the majority alliance, currently has no vote, allying with a pariah
16. Bhanu - bad position in the tribe, awkward socially, overly emotional/hothead

I'm sure these would shift a lot from week to week. I had Q at #2 last week and now I think it's generous to put him at #9. And I probably never would have ranked the winners of 41, 42, or 43 in the top half at any point of those premerges.

[7,052,770]

I'm not crazy about what happened to Randen tonight. On Australian Survivor, you are allowed to leave for up to 24 hours to get medical attention and can return to the game if it's safe.

Last year on Australian Survivor, one of the biggest legends of the show was injured (completely at production's fault, not his) and had to go get an MRI on his neck in episode 1, but then returned once it was all clear. (Actually, the show let him skip tribal council altogether, which I didn't like. US Survivor shouldn't be that lax.) That was a great season, and probably wouldn't have been under American rules where he just would've been out.

They really should have let Randen return to the game once he got the all-clear.


Also, I'm going to have to drop Hunter down from #1 in my rankings. He's just too overtly good that I feel like there's no way they're letting him make it all the way to the end.

[7,052,770]

I'm not crazy about what happened to Randen tonight. On Australian Survivor, you are allowed to leave for up to 24 hours to get medical attention and can return to the game if it's safe.

Last year on Australian Survivor, one of the biggest legends of the show was injured (completely at production's fault, not his) and had to go get an MRI on his neck in episode 1, but then returned once it was all clear. (Actually, the show let him skip tribal council altogether, which I didn't like. US Survivor shouldn't be that lax.) That was a great season, and probably wouldn't have been under American rules where he just would've been out.

They really should have let Randen return to the game once he got the all-clear.


Also, I'm going to have to drop Hunter down from #1 in my rankings. He's just too overtly good that I feel like there's no way they're letting him make it all the way to the end.

His arm did need the rest and likely wouldn’t have gotten better in the game. I pinched a nerve in my neck/arm in October of last year while sleeping and while it’s almost 100% it’s still a bit off. No way his (which was way worse than mine) is getting better in the game.

I watched the RHAP interview with Randen, and he said he definitely couldn't have come back. I do think allowing people to briefly leave the game (maybe do like an 8-hour limit instead of Australia's 24) to seek medical treatment would be fine for other situations though.

[7,052,770]

I came back to Survivor to watch 45 after having not watched it since Winners At War in 2020, and am now watching 46.

I honestly feel like I'm in the minority here, but I'm really enjoying 46 a lot so far, certainly more than 45. It's so refreshing to see people openly disliking each other for once and actually plotting to take each other out, as opposed to how goody-goody everyone seemed in 45, to the point that the final few episodes that aired that season felt so flat and predictable to me.

I'm glad everyone's here to play the game and make some good TV this time, and not just to "make friends" and "discover themselves."

42 is pretty good if you want to check out another recent season. I thought 41, 43, and 44 were all fine, but nothing special.

[7,052,770]

A couple weeks ago, someone said on Reddit that Bhanu is like if Michael Scott were on Survivor. I couldn't not see if after I read that.