Survivor megathread

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I'll proudly raise my hand and say that I would have gotten Hunter's journey challenge correct in like 30 seconds.

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You can test yourself on the puzzle here:
https://www.sporcle.com/games/afriedman0221/survivor-journey-challenge

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I'm starting to think maybe we are being set up for a Hunter win after all. His alignment with Q could get him pretty deep into the game, and he may just be able to challenge his way into the final 3 from there.

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This season is bonkers!

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A lot of people online are now writing off Hunter's winning chances, but I actually think he's still in decent shape:

• Q has burned all of his bridges and really has no choice left but work with Hunter. And Q is going to be the bigger target of the pair. Somehow Hunter has a "meatshield" (!)
• If he can get to the final 4, I like his chances to either win immunity or win fire. So he needs to survive 5 tribal councils to get there, with 1 idol and a good shot at any immunity challenge. Plus, I think Q is a bigger target, Venus could easily go before him, maybe Charlie or Liz will attract more attention, etc.
• People don't seem to think of him as much of a strategic threat. Kenzie and Tiffany were kinda rolling their eyes at the idea he was scrambling yesterday

In the new era, you can win just by making one notable move (like Maryanne getting Omar out or Gabler getting out Elie) and having the jury just generally like you. Maybe he can survive the next 5 rounds by (in no certain order), working with Q to actually get rid of Tiffany and her idol, winning 2 immunities, using his idol in a "big move" to take down Charlie, shifting the target to Q once. Then he wins fire and wins a jury vote in a 43-esque final where there's no obvious deserving winner.

Also, Hunter would probably get the votes of the first 2 jurors (Soda and Tevin), as they were his 2 closest allies in the game and he had nothing to do with them going home. (I guess Soda might actually vote Venus over Hunter, but I highly doubt both Venus and Hunter make it to FTC) so he'd just need 2 more to at least get a tie.

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Brutal result. In the "New Era" advantages are so plentiful that you really should just play something if you have any inkling that something might be up.

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So Hunter said in his RHAP interview that he knew where 8 of the votes were going. He only missed Tiffany - he thought she was voting for Q and he'd survive.

If you know you're getting multiple votes in a tribal council and you have an idol, play it. It's one thing to hold it when you don't think you're getting any votes and would have to be wrong about 4, 5, 6 people to go home with it, but if you're going home from just by being wrong about 1 person, play it. In the vast majority of cases, it's not a big deal to play it without needing it.

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PLAY YOUR IDOL IF YOU HAVE ONE!!!

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4 idols found so far this season, 0 played, 0 currently in the game.

I'll scream it out like Liz this time:

PLAY YOUR IDOL IF YOU HAVE ONE!!!

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It looks like the next Australian season is going to be an Australia vs. USA all-star season. Wow!

My guess is that you won't see anyone who's a shoo-in for Survivor 50 (Carolyn, Yam-Yam, Maryanne, Jesse, Rick Devens, etc.) on it, so it will probably consist of legends from long ago if they can get them (Tyson? Boston Rob?) and notable New Era players who may not make the cut. Also, Australia has much more physical challenges in the pre-merge and values physical strength more. And certain players who've already burned bridges with US production and aren't likely to return could end up on the cast.

Here's me taking a random stab at the USA tribe (also note that Australia doesn't have a diversity mandate):
Men - Richard Hatch, Jonny Fairplay, Tyson, Jonathan (42), Hunter, Adam (33)
Women - Parvati, Sarah Lacina, Wentworth, Ciera, Erika, Cirie

Who knows though. I could easily be 0/12.

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Sorry I had to burst into flames for a while after watching the episode...

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I've always been a believer in "it's impossible for the jury to get the winner wrong because the point of the game is that it's the jury's choice who wins."

And usually when there's a "bad" winner it's because the better player blew it with bad jury management (8, 19, 20, 23) blew it and we can see why, or it's because they all were pretty mediocre and the jury had to pick someone (17, 43). (Or you have the jury in 38, who I think we can all agree objectively made the wrong decision, but that's a special case that hopefully will never be repeated...)

But I'm really not seeing what Charlie did wrong in the jury's eyes here. He played really well strategically and socially, and I was thinking as Jeff was about to read the votes that he would make a top 20 winner. Kenzie's winner ranking is, what, #40 maybe?

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Alright, it's time for me to be "that guy" again. Unlike 44 and 45, where all 18 contestants came across more or less as Democrats, I think there are probably at least a couple of Republicans on this season. These are based entirely on vibes - I haven't done any real research on this, and at least 5 of them wouldn't surprise me at all if I got the party wrong.

In order from right to left:

• Hunter - I'm the last person who would make the knee-jerk "white man from Mississippi = Republican" judgment, but he's also a graduate of and a teacher a conservative religious private school.
• Maria - This could go either way, but an Arab Christian (or is she Muslim? I don't know so?) from Texas and the strong "family focus" gives me Republican vibes.
• Kenzie - This is the toughest call on the cast, but I went with the demographics of working class white Southerner. I wouldn't be shocked with anything from dark blue to dark red.
• Randen - Who?
• Jelinsky - No real indication either way, so I'm just going by age and location.
• Liz - Another one that could go either way. The way she switched to a "black accent" when speaking to the black contestants was just very strange, but she still comes across as more of a Democrat. Also apparently not a millionaire at all - that was just something she made up to lower her threat level .
• Q - Playing the percentages with demographics here, but he definitely seems like someone who could fit the "black Republican" mold - brash, confident, successful businessman.
• Ben - Trump doesn't rock.
• Tim - Basically just going with demographics here.
• Bhanu - I guess I'm not 100% certain with him being an immigrant from India, but he just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would like Trump.
• Jem, Moriah, and Tiffany - They all just come across that way.
• Tevin - Gay black Gen-Z.
• Charlie - Northeastern Gen Z lawyer who seemed to have some guilt about his white/male privilege and wealthy upbringing.
• Jess - I could be wrong, but I thought I remembered seeing this on a Reddit thread.
• Soda - There's just nothing about her that makes me think Republican.
• Venus - She's from Canada, but definitely seems like the type who would be outspokenly anti-Trump. She spent part of her interview with RHAP supporting feminist protests in Iran.

Overall I think the "New Era" skews around 90-10 Democratic or more. Part of this is a natural side effect of the diversity mandate, but I don't think recent seasons of Big Brother or The Amazing Race are as skewed.

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I saw on Reddit that Maria has made some #FreePalestine posts, so I may have been wrong on my guess. She is from Lebanon, so it's also possible she could be a pro-Palestine Republican.