Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
Posts: 40,537
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« on: April 07, 2020, 05:26:24 PM » |
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« edited: April 07, 2020, 05:41:09 PM by PQG and Libertarian Republican will pimp slap Coronavirus! »
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Zyzz's post above encapsulates Clinton's win in Georgia perfectly. The demographics and voting trends Macon Georgia competitive again r very much a reversal of what carried the state for president Bubba.
Regarding Arizona, I can't figure it out. In 96 Clinton won a narrow plurality of 46.5% of the vote, an Improvement of 10% from his 92 numbers. In that prior election, Ross Perot got one of his highest Statewide percentages with over 23% of the vote.
In trying to find the Dynamics at work here, I discovered a very interesting statistic. In every presidential election after 96 right up to the present, the Democratic candidates percentage of the vote was incredibly consistent, always falling in the 44 percent range. I believe the lowest was a hair over 44.3%, and the highest around 44.9, and Obama even maintained within this tiny range while running against favorite son McCain. That's an incredibly consistent figure spread out over the course of 5 elections and 20 years!
I'm not sure what this proves other than Clinton performing just a couple percentage points better than any other Democrat in the subsequent quarter-century was sufficient to narrowly carry the state. It makes me a little pessimistic though as, while I'm not a big believer in the power of long-term electoral traditions (a.g. they always said no Democrat could win without Texas), Biden is going to have to break some serious and very very consistent presidential voting patterns for Democrats in order to carry the state. In other words, he's going to have to run Five Points better then every single Democrat in the last quarter century
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