KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Badger]

Although I screwed up my 2016 presidential prediction like everyone else and yes thought this race was tilt Bevan, I'm going to Crow a little here.

All we ever heard from an overwhelming majority of posters on the Kentucky governor's race thread was how Bevan was a shoe-in, and the only issue was whether it was going to be close win, a comfortable victory, or a walloping worse than four years ago. All this despite. as I repeatedly pointed out to little avail, there was a near complete absence of legit polling in the race, and Bevan had among the worst approval ratings of any governor in the country. And thus to call the race so prematurely against Breshear was, well, grossly premature.

Trends are real, but they sure as hell aren't everything. There, I said it.(Drops mic)

[Badger]

Wow.  Bandit was right.  My apologies to you, Bandit!  I really underestimated you guys.

Bandit was lucky. His predictions Brashear would sweep this were as hackish as all of his other predictions have ever been. He was no more insightful or less lucky than Republican hacks in 2016 predicting a trump win.

[Badger]

So does this mean McConnel can lose

Slow down, tiger

[Badger]

I had one too many free articles recently and can't get past the nyt firewall. Where is the outstanding vote from at this point? Who does it favor and how heavily?

[Badger]

Has anyone noticed the inconsistency between sources? Some are saying different sources are at 100% with different results, e.g. Fulton being won by Bevin in NYT results but Beshear in CNN results.

What's the matter you big baby? Do you smell illegal immigrant voter fraud in conjunction with liberal fake media? Haha!

[Badger]

If I'm doing my math right from the NYT results, there are about 61,286 votes left to count. Bevin trails by 12,072 votes. If he wants to win, he needs to hold Beshear to less than 40% of the remaining votes.

Feasibility?

[Badger]

Republicans have lost these elections. Even if the GOP wins MS and LA, it's over. This is going to hurt President's Trump's re-election, makes me very sad

I don't think so. Bevin was unpopular.

Wasn't the attorney general's race close as well, even though the Republican squeaked it out?

[Badger]

Republicans have lost these elections. Even if the GOP wins MS and LA, it's over. This is going to hurt President's Trump's re-election, makes me very sad

I don't think so. Bevin was unpopular.

Wasn't the attorney general's race close as well, even though the Republican squeaked it out?

Not even close. Cameron won in a landslide, and beat Stumbo by 14%, 57-43%, according to NYT.

Right, as Pericles noted I was confused with the Secretary of State's race. My point was this was not like the recent Louisiana grooming tutorial primary where Edwards did very well and all other Democrats got completely shellacked. The other Democrats lost in Kentucky, but Bevan was not the only Republican who had a close race.

[Badger]

Hood is pretty much done.

You can't really say that with basically no Delta or Jackson or Hood's neck of the woods in yet.

But yeah, Hood is probably going to lose. He could have held the AG seat for life and threw it away. He should have run for Senate last year instead if he's tired of being AG, and he should have lined up a successor Democrat who's not an ACLU lawyer with no funding.

Come on and give him credit man. Democrats both Statewide and nationally have been baking Hood to run for governor forever. It's been a recurring theme on Atlas and one of the few that actually matched that in real life that Jim Hood was the Great White Hope for Democrats hookah when in this deeply Republican state.

Federal races are just too polarized for him to beat CHS, instead he only would have further narrowed the margins some. I think Hood rightly saw both ESPYs performance and the overall Democratic Trend and thought this was his year. It just turned out that Mississippi Republicans actually had a decent candidate win their primary.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/alexwagner/status/1191904483879641095

Sounds like myself, Xing, and IceSpear were advising them. And other atlas posters who thought Bevin was inevitable.

That's got to be the classiest way I've ever heard anyone eat crow before.

[Badger]

Hood is pretty much done.

You can't really say that with basically no Delta or Jackson or Hood's neck of the woods in yet.

But yeah, Hood is probably going to lose. He could have held the AG seat for life and threw it away. He should have run for Senate last year instead if he's tired of being AG, and he should have lined up a successor Democrat who's not an ACLU lawyer with no funding.

Come on and give him credit man. Democrats both Statewide and nationally have been baking Hood to run for governor forever. It's been a recurring theme on Atlas and one of the few that actually matched that in real life that Jim Hood was the Great White Hope for Democrats hookah when in this deeply Republican state.

Federal races are just too polarized for him to beat CHS, instead he only would have further narrowed the margins some. I think Hood rightly saw both ESPYs performance and the overall Democratic Trend and thought this was his year. It just turned out that Mississippi Republicans actually had a decent candidate win their primary.

Sorry, I just don't agree with this analysis. I think Hood would have had a better chance of beating Hyde-Smith than Reeves, and an even better chance of just keeping the AG seat, which is considerably more powerful than the figurehead-ish governor anyway.

I think Hood was tired of being AG and wanted to go home to Chickasaw County. Just quitting would have looked bad, so he decided to roll the dice for governor, and if he wins, great, easy gig, and if he loses, no big deal.

Well, I agree he could have kept the AG seat, but was tired of it. Like any pol, especially one who has had flatterers from around the state and around the country telling him for years that he was the state Democrats won big chance of retaking the governor's mansion, he saw this as his potential year and lost.

IRC, wasn't Reeves primary opponent whom he narrowly defeated a decidedly worst candidate? Maybe not McDaniel worse, but still not as strong as Reeves? Maybe Hood could have beat him.

[Badger]

"Bevin....never heard of the guy"

https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1191922351346200576

DJT Jr. is a greasy liar, but he's not that wrong here.  If the Republican incumbent wasn't as unpopular as Bevin, this race wouldn't have even been close.  It's not a repudiation of Trump.

It proves that Trump has far less sway over voters then he believes or Republicans hope.

[Badger]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

[Badger]

A Libertarian is beating both a D and R in the Broome County, NY DA race.

Question mark does anyone have any details on this race? Is this an actual libertarian running and making Headway? Or is this one of those scenarios where a local well-known democrat or republican has a personality Feud with another faction of the party and breaks off or is forced out to 1 as a third party?

[Badger]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

Who said that the Kentucky race indicates anything about 2020? Neither I nor the poster I responded to did. Your post is a total non-sequitur.

And I said, and readily standby, is that winning an underdog race for governor of a heavily Republican state like Kentucky plus flipping the Virginia legislature hardly makes last night the best election for Republicans since 2016. That's ludicrous.