Indictment-O-Rama, Act 3: Cohen Up the River

[Badger]

Recommendation is no prison time? Wow.

That's.... Huge. He must have had something big and lots of it to offer. Generally speaking a government witness has to go to prison or they won't be believed by the jury. It's hard enough to convince a jury to believe their testimony if they got a significant reduction in their time, let alone just probation.

[Badger]

Reading this up on twitter, sounds good for Trump, bad news for the resistance.

Wut?

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Fast forwarding a little bit, I wonder if Donnie Half-Scoop will sing as much as Flynn to avoid jail time?  I guarantee Donnie Two-Scoop would have no qualms throwing his own son under the bus if it were the other way round, so I’d say... yes.

Prosecutors only care about getting a witness's cooperation when there's someone higher up the chain to get. Not the situation obviously with the Donald. The best you can do is sing like a canary about any and all other wrongdoings and squirreled Away funds, Etc. He'll never do that.

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I'm amazed that there are still people trying to argue with Naso. The guy lives in his own Fox-sponsored fantasy world. Short of hitting him on the head with a sledgehammer he ain't going to wake up from the Matrix, no matter how many evidence you cite.

Even the sledgehammer technique won't work. Other than that I concur.

[Badger]

Schiff: Trump may face ‘real prospect of jail time’

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https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1071794159261020160

Lol hahaha That guy always says the same thing

He better hope he wins or Pence wins a third term and pardons him.

Yes, but it appears he still faces various State charges, where he's not about to face such leniency.

[Badger]

Is there anything preventing states from prosecuting him now that he is president?

No, but it would very swiftly end up in the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh might have to recuse himself.

I think state prosecution is only likely to happen if Mueller is fired and/or impeachment fails.

Kavanaugh will never do such a thing. Partial evidence as to why he doesnt belong on the High Court.

[Badger]

The president of the United States can’t spell “smoking” https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1072095127894667265

Oh come on. I know as well as anyone what autocorrect can do.

[Badger]

3 years is a substantial amount of time for a first offender on this sort of nonviolent crime. Cohen's not getting off easy. Won't be eligible for early release for 2 1/2 years.

Has to report to prison in March.

In a federal case? Not really. I'm surprised it was that low.

[Badger]

3 years is a substantial amount of time for a first offender on this sort of nonviolent crime. Cohen's not getting off easy. Won't be eligible for early release for 2 1/2 years.

Has to report to prison in March.

In a federal case? Not really. I'm surprised it was that low.

White collar offenders get very long time, even for first offenses, if they are involved in criminal enterprises or have committed multiple crimes. Thus Madoff. Many of the federal non-violent offenders have done large-scale frauds -- and those often involve mail fraud or wire fraud. It is hard to commit a large-scale financial crime without committing either mail  fraud (soliciting fraudulent transactions by mail, or getting payments by mail) or wire fraud (using broadcast media or the Internet to solicit dishonest business). Getting funds by check  or credit card typically imply wire fraud because most transactions involving a check or credit card imply a wire transfer of funds at some point.

The feds treat mail fraud and wire fraud with great seriousness. 

Exactly.

[Badger]

Is it common for a judge to ignore a sentencing recommendation in a plea deal?

Not uncommon. Depends on the judge (and often the likely media visibility of the case).

In this case the latter doesn't apply too much considering this judge has a lifetime appointment.

[Badger]

Haven't seen this.

Trump reportedly lashed out against Whitaker after the Cohen News.

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CNN

Still trying to corrupt the judicial system and shut the investigation down, eh? What a shock.

[Badger]

But the investigation is still ongoing; Mueller is getting convictions and flip witness. Trump could do a lot more if he was so inclined. Like have the Special Counsel's Office mysteriously catch ablaze.

We have no idea what Whitaker is doing behind the scenes, though, do we?

Whitaker is getting briefed on major developments, but that's it (he has no authority or input). Rosenstein is still supervising.

Side note: does anyone else feel like Atlas as a whole has severely underestimated the scope and potential impact of this investigation since it started?

The alt left and almost everyone right of center have, yes.

[Badger]

The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that it would lift financial sanctions on Deripaska’s aluminum company, United Co. Rusal, as well as En+ Group plc and JSC EuroSibEnergo in 30 days, after Deripaska agreed to reduce his ownership stake in each of the companies to below 50 percent.

If he has reduced his ownership stake to below 50%, he isn't actually the owner any more. He is a minority shareholder.

The way Russian oligarchic practices play out in both business and politics, I will bet you 1000 to 1 that the shares sold necessary to make him a "minority shareholders are still very much in his effective control through some combination of shell corporations and reliable friends who will always do his bidding for any management decisions.

Yet more obscene levels of overt corruption, which 40-ish% of the country is perfectly willing to give Trump a pass on so long as he promises them White Power and to stick it to the libs.

[Badger]

I concede your point there. Proving that will be another thing though.

True, but I have faith in Mueller to at least provide strong indications.

[Badger]

I hate to laugh at someone for having gout, but if I have to laugh at someone for that, what better person than Manafort?

Paul Manafort Does Indeed Have Gout

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My uncle had gout a few years ago when he was around 50, which was surprising considering he kept himself in pretty good shape. He pointed out though, that it's not gout. Everyone seems to call it "the gout".

[Badger]

Why everyone seems so sure that Mueller will drop something big by the end of the week?

Personally, I hadn't heard any thing like that. However, between the Supreme Court ruling and today's announcement Rod Rosenstein is likely stepping down soon,....

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An honest-to-goodness question whether the president United States is a Manchurian Candidate. Dear God the times we live in.

[Badger]

Evan McMullin
‏Verified account @Evan_McMullin

Evan McMullin Retweeted Donald J. Trump

I’ve always been fascinated by traitors. They consider themselves highly intelligent, yet fail to understand how likely they are to be caught. When they are, they become men without a home, having betrayed their countrymen and been used by an enemy. So it will be with this one.

https://twitter.com/Evan_McMullin/status/1084111008073949184

McMullin's twitter feed is like an oasis of reasonableness amid the sea of irrationality that usually is political Twitter.

[Badger]

So uhhhhhhhh

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/carl-bernstein-draft-of-muellers-final-report-says-trump-helped-putin-destabilize-the-us

The weird thing is Jon Karl said he heard the report would be “anti-climatic” and I fail to see how any report that says this is “anti-climatic”

Is it possible he just has bad info or something? Seems like most other reporters are geared for a bombshell

The fact is Carl Bernstein has never been that great of a journalist. He rode Woodward's coattails through a lot of the Watergate investigation, and was subsequently fired by The Washington Post because he just wasn't that great.

[Badger]

Mueller Probes an Event With Nunes, Flynn, and Foreign Officials at Trump’s D.C. Hotel

https://www.thedailybeast.com/mueller-probes-an-event-with-nunes-flynn-and-foreign-officials-at-trumps-dc-hotel

Nunes?!? Oh God how I would love to see him get exposed in this! I realize it's only one report about one meeting under scrutiny, but one can only hope.

Devin Nunez is clearly one of if not the greatest political hack of the last decade in doing everything humanly possible to obstruct the house is investigation into the Russia matter. Just find out that he was actively involved in addition to providing coverage for Trump like a good little minion would be just......sigh.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1087563055226146816

Somewhere, the ghost of Richard Nixon is laughing.

It's really hard to believe that this is the best legal counsel the President of the Unites States can get.

Oh, it's not. Not by a light year's reach. It's just Trump responding with his gut attraction to fellow reality stars to fill his Administration. (Kudrow, Guiliani, previously Omarosa, etc.)

[Badger]

Roger Stone is a truly repulsive human being. No one deserves this fate more (other than Trump, I guess).

Not even Stephen Bannon?

Stone has been poisoning American politics for decades longer than Bannon.

Guys, guys! No need to argue. Stone and Bannon are BOTH lower than scum.

[Badger]

So when are we expecting Junior to be indicted? I'm giving it two months tops. And do we expect a Stone-style arrest or Cohenesque self-surrender?

I doubt it'll be that soon, but when it likely occurs I have zero doubt it will be a self surrender given he's the president's son.

[Badger]

So when are we expecting Junior to be indicted? I'm giving it two months tops. And do we expect a Stone-style arrest or Cohenesque self-surrender?

I doubt it'll be that soon, but when it likely occurs I have zero doubt it will be a self surrender given he's the president's son.

What if there's reason to believe he might destroy evidence?

Addressed at his bond hearing, to which I I think they would have to have very recent emails and / or recordings demonstrating an unqualified intent to do so. I sincerely doubt that would happen. He would have to literally be brought in driving a white Bronco ahead of numerous LAPD Cruisers before he'd be held without bond.

Now, I could entirely see his bond being revoked if he very likely engaged in witness tampering or the like while out on bond. I think there is recent precedent for that.

[Badger]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1096503185840193540

Just saw that news, what the heck does that indicate?
I’m guessing either:
- Mueller wants an insight into communication strategy as part of an obstruction of justice charge (looking into whether staff conspired to misrepresent the facts and pressure witnesses (see the Trump Tower statement)
- Or Mueller wants to leverage her knowledge as a high ranking WH staffer.

Seems pretty important either way

Seems too good to be true as I suspect the above analysis may be correct, but to get such a horrid and disingenuous person like Sanders wrapped up legal charges against her out of Mueller's investigation would be just too great for words.