AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/JonSeaton18/status/983885802223517696

Watch this video: https://t.co/d83qbpCHgn

Likely R --> Titanium R

Is that local station owned by Sinclair? If local news were one tenth as exacting on anything Trump said or did 2 years ago, he'd still be back in New York raping models.

Seriously, "she was sued for malpractice!" And? 75 percent of physicians practicing in a low-risk specialty will have been sued by the time they are age of 65 years, 19 percent will have made an indemnity payment. For those in the high risk specialties, 99 percent will have been sued by age 65, and 71 percent will have lost.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2011/08/19/211634.htm

How was the suit resolved? Dismissed? Economic cost/benefit settlement to avoid greater costs of litigation?

What a half-assed, half-complete, "news" story.

[Badger]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

Yeah but how do you explain Trump at 44% approval in a district he won by 21? His approval is 40% nationally

Without looking at the cross tabs, I assume this polls likely voters? If so, there's your answer. The enthusiasm Gap has been tangible and enormous this year. Among the Alabama Electric that came out and defeated Roy Moore Trump was barely chin above water in terms of popularity. Is he truly that low overall in Alabama? No. But in terms of people motivated to turn out in an off-year special election, yeah, a decidedly Democratic lean is not just possible, but probable.

[Badger]

I have to say Nova, looking at those voter turnout numbers in Sun City versus Mirage strong indicates this seat will stay Republican.

[Badger]

BREAKING: New Emerson Poll (they had a previous poll last week showing Tiperneni +1)

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/988398865329115136

Tiperneni (D) - 43 (-3)
Lesko (R) - 49 (+4)

Fits very well with the Democrats losing ground on the generic ballot.

Can yall mods do something useful and ban Andrew yet

I was unaware that losing a district by Arpaio-Penzone numbers constituted a disaster.

1. I'm not Andrew.
2. When did I say it would be a disaster to lose it by 6 points? I think that would be a great result for Democrats (15 point swing).

You are lying regarding number one

[Badger]

Nova, without my directly replying to your long, though very very informative and interesting, posts, about what share of Republican voters defecting from Lesco, combined with what share of democratic voters Lesco picks up, do you calculate as necessary for Lesco to lose if she only carries 40% of independent voters? I really don't know the details on the ground for registered Independents in Arizona and this District in particular tend to vote, but based on polls I have seen nationwide at least, a 60/40 split for a Democrat seems quite doable in this political environment.

[Badger]

I'll call it single digits for Lesco, though I wouldn't be shocked if it broke 10 points

[Badger]

NOVA, I want to thank you for your insightful and incisive coverage of this race. It was wonderful.

[Badger]

Nova, just for my back-of-the-envelope math, if the various municipalities listed in your one graph where to mirror their share of the districts vote in the presidential election in the recent special election, would lesko have lost? While the heavily Republican far Northern Phoenix exurbs portion dropped some what in its share of the district's vote from 2016, everywhere else it seemed that Democratic areas dropped, a couple split areas basically stayed the same, and the LD 22 share increased for the special election. My very rough back-of-the-envelope Mass says it's still a razor-thin republican win, but was interested in what your numbers show.

I say this because, if theoretically those districts match the presidential election share in 2018, lesko go could lose

[Badger]

Excellent and thorough analysis as always, Nova. So my next, and perhaps most important question, is the following. What is the Democrats most realistic road to flipping the seat in 2008? Include whatever factors, demographic, Precinct analysis, whatever, necessary.