What would an election between RINO Tom and White Trash look like?

[Badger]

So a pro-choice Charlie Baker-type "fiscal conservative" vs. a pro-life (I believe?) "populist" Democrat? (Of course this assumes that they actually somehow win their party's nomination despite holding these views and don't change them)

Sorry Tom, but I think it would look like this:

Iowa goes R because of the home state bonus. I think this would be a solid SouthernGothic victory, but not because RINO Tom is an awful candidate or campaigner. I just believe Tom would have a much harder time rallying the base than Southern Gothic, and he would be faced with an uphill battle in the Electoral College as well.

The margins in places like Fairfax County and WV-03 would be astonishing in this election.

How does Tom lose/SG win AZ?

MT also seems a bit odd, but not as much. I'm all ears how.

LA at first blush seemed off, but then considering the abortion issue, assuming  SG would maintain approx 90% support of African-Americans, and yeah that makes sense.

How close would MO be?

[Badger]

Fracking isn't really that important in MT, though, and you're an excellent fit for the state.

Wha?? You'd know best, of course, but that's very surprising. I thought gas extraction was big up there.

(And I still want to know why you think SG would win MT and, especially, AZ)