Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV?

[Badger]

IF an angel (i.e. the Koch Brothers) invest heavily in a nationwide name recognition and positive ad campaign, and IF it works well enough in time for Johnson and Weld to attend the debates, and IF they run a decent campaign without any major gaffes (likely individually, but watch for Ayn Rand craziness from state/regional LP directors talking to the media), then yes, they'll probably do about as well as Anderson in 80, with UT probably being their strongest state.

As none of that seems likely, I have to say no.

No. Answering third party in a poll is a free move, which is inflates their standing.

Word. Don't trust any poll that reads a third party candidate as an option other than "volunteered", unless they're literally to the same level of competitiveness as Lieberman in CT or Ventura in MN.

[Badger]

Highly doubtful, tho circumstances do favor him doing the best in the PV that a Libertarian presidential candidate has ever done.

Of course, the best PV ever was only 1.07% in 1980--and that's also the second best raw PV total (921,128, with Johnson getting 1.2 million in 2012)--so "best PV ever" is kind of a low bar.

The LP probably will break that low bar, though. They have the most qualified ticket they've ever had, and the two most intensely disliked major party candidates in history.