How does the GOP get a new base for their primaries?

[Badger]

The idea that social conservatism is the GOP's biggest problem is laughable, with the possible exception of immigration.  By far the biggest issue is economics - broadening appeal on that league will garner far more votes than abandoning the party's most loyal voter base.

That's....an awfully huge exception.

[Badger]

The idea that social conservatism is the GOP's biggest problem is laughable, with the possible exception of immigration.  By far the biggest issue is economics - broadening appeal on that league will garner far more votes than abandoning the party's most loyal voter base.

The Republican Party should regularly be winning the votes of affluent minorities and minorities with sympathy toward the business community/entrepreneurial spirit/efficient governance, but we get clobbered with those voters.  Why do you think that is?  Because my theory is we come across as a racist and xenophobic party.  A lot.

That's technically correct, but what really matters is the net effect a change will have. That is, if the GOP were to go the libertarianish route, they would have to win over more affluent minorities and socially liberal whites than lose poor/middling socons and anti-immigration types. Let's take a look at the relative size of these groups and how they vote.





Although affluent non-whites are very Democratic, they also are very few in number. Minority votes are clustered in lower income brackets, so even if the GOP didn't have race issues, we would expect minorities to vote heavily Democratic.

Now let's look at the white vote. Whites vote GOP, even at relatively low income levels. I think it's quite unlikely that white guys making $30k a year are voting GOP because they are converts to free market economics. No, these voters are voting GOP primarily due to immigration or religious issues.

What does this mean for GOP strategy? Well for one, focusing on winning over affluent minorities and white social liberals is probably a losing strategy. If the GOP is to make gains among rapidly growing minorities, they will need to appeal further down the economic ladder.

While the GOP needs to moderate on most issues, moderating on economics is the lowest risk way to moderate. Immigration risks losing large numbers of whites who have no other reason to vote GOP, and major social liberalism would be counterproductive among pro-life Hispanic Catholics.

This is a major blind spot for right leaning pundits who are generally fiscally conservative, socially liberal and (surprise, surprise) want the GOP to try to win over people like that. As we become increasingly atomized, it is easier for people like that to mistake their issues with the Republicans for, the Republicans electoral problems at large.

A more effective GOP solution would be:

1) Dramatically moderate on economics, to something resembling Bush era 'compassionate conservatism'. Accept universal health care, and focus on payroll and sales tax cuts, not capital gains cuts.

2) Scale back immigration rhetoric while maintaining a clear difference with the Democrats, to retain poorer white voters.

3) Moderate or drop losing social issues (gay marriage, marijuana), while holding steady on abortion.

4) Employ some of the Canadian Tories' tactics from 2011. They focused on values without religious undertones with lots of rhetoric about hard work, tradition, family first etc. These acted as a sort of dog whistle against the left by implying that they were patronizing about immigrants. Most of the ads were in Cantonese or Mandarin, but here's an English version to get the idea

Good solution with all 4 choices, especially moderating on a path to citizenship and economics.

[Badger]

Actually 56% of GOP Voters per Pew Research are for immigration reform. Its the talk radio types that don't want immigration reform.

Same thing with gun background checks and the like.