Sabato's final prediction: R+8 in Senate, R+9 in House

[Badger]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

[Badger]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

An independent wouldn't run in a GOP primary

Well, obviously if he chooses this route he'll formally join the GOP at some point. I can't see him successfully running for re-election as an independent after caucusing with the Republicans. This is KS, not New England.

[Badger]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

Plus if it's 51-48 R, he may go ahead and caucus with the Dems so he doesn't have to flip in 2016, which would just be awkward.

Quite possible I agree. But he may use the likely Democratic gains in 2016 to "keep his word to Kansas and caucus with the majority" and caucus with the Democrats like he obviously wants. Then he'll hope the GOP doesn't win back the Senate in 2018.

[Badger]

I agree with Maxwell completely.

Either way, he's a one-term senator. At least as a Democrat he would have some power and wouldn't be completely hated.

You guys might be right. It wouldn't shock me. I'm just saying there's a chance that McConnell and his caucus try to make nice with Orman to keep him on the team as a buffer against likely losses in 16. Orman likewise can "keep to his word" to his constituents and spend the next 6 years repairing bridges with the KS GOP to overcome a primary challenge (which he may well decide is even less of a threat than running for re-election as a Democrat).

Again, it wouldn't shock me if he caucuses with the Democrats, majority or not, I'm just saying the chance of him sticking with the GOP majority isn't zero (but yeah, probably less than 50/50).