Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

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Colorado Republicans maintain strong lead.

Colorado update 10/30: 50 to 60 percent of expected electorate has voted

Total ballots: 1,038,023

Republicans: 431,711 (41.6%) (2010: 39.5%)
Democrats: 336,908 (32.4%) (2010: 33.6%)
Unaffiliated: 269,404 (26%) (2010: 26.9%)

My thoughts:

In 2010 Republicans had a roughly six-point advantage, and in 2012 that advantage was only two points.  I don’t expect the nine-point lead to hold, but I have to think that even an electorate similar to 2010 would be a disaster for Democrats.

I’ll point out that right now the state’s three Democratic congressional districts are actually outperforming their 2010 totals, which means that the Democratic GOTV is obviously at work.  Colorado’s four GOP congressional districts are all either performing at or below 2010 levels relative to the electorate this year as a whole.  And still Republicans are leading by nine.  In other words, I doubt that Democrats will be able to run up totals in Boulder (CD-2) and Denver (CD-1) any more than they already are. 

Right now Republicans have a larger vote advantage over Democrats than they did at the end of the 2010 election. Republicans are voting at a roughly 9% higher rate than Democrats right now, and they have been at or around that level for nearly the entire voting period.  I am beginning to wonder if this is simply what the electorate will be this year.  I expect the GOP’s nine-point lead to diminish somewhat, but Republicans are simply voting at such numbers that Democrats appear unable to catch them and bring margins down significantly.  Democrats won’t really have Election Day to rack up big totals, either, since this election is all-mail balloting.  Same-day voter registration may enable Democrats to hit college campuses with new registrations, but an extra 10,000 votes will only drop the margins about .5% relative to the whole electorate. 

By the way, I’ll just point out that I am not even certain that we’ll reach 2 million votes this year, which is what most estimates have been.  The 2010 election had 1.8 million and 2012 had 2.5 million, and I suspect we’ll get somewhere between 1.8 and 2.0 million. 

Here is a great layout of the vote so far:
http://www.magellanstrategies.com/#!colorado-2014-vote-returns/c118p

Just curious: Why do you believe having an electorate similar to 2010 would be such a "disaster" for Dems? Considering they won both the Gov and Senate races that year (albeit not by much)? Before we discuss how much independents are voting Republican out of frustration with Obama, lest we forget that dynamic was very much in play in 2010 too. Frankly, though Obama's hardly popular now, I don't believe it's equal to, let alone exceeds, the national intensity of 2010.

This'll be a good GOP year nationally, and probably in CO, but I don't see why Democrats would be doomed as long as they at least get close to 2010 turnout.

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Democrats now up to about a 7,000 absentee ballot returned lead in Iowa.

Not great, but at least better than it was last week.

And the Republican lead in Florida continues to drop, down to 5.9% today from 6.4% yesterday.

Anyone have any updates on this?

IMHO, for the reasons Miles and Backtored (and now TB) have all stated, Udall is likely finished. Of the remaining "swing races" in IA, AK and KS (which Democrats need to sweep if Udall loses in order to firmly keep the Senate), I'm guessing (with minimal certainty) the one Republicans are most likely to win is IA.

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At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  That like wishing for history repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling. 

Yes, I'm sure someone with the signature "Paul/Cruz 2016!" is a paragon of objectivity.

JUNK SIGNATURE! JUNK USER!

KCDem on ignore for his stupidity.

You don't want putting stupid posters on ignore to become a trend. Trust me.