KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback

[Badger]

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

And "win easily", don't forget.

[Badger]

By Umbehr helping Brownback, that means that most of the Umbehr voters are Davis-leaning?

Quite sharply according to this poll. Davis leads as their second choice by a 65/21 margin (standard caveat re: small sample size of course).

I'll further note that, while Orman is running strongly enough in the Senate race to sustain a serious campaign and likely a sizable final tally, Umbehr running in the high single digits is consistent with typical 3rd party candidates whose actual vote % runs well behind where they polled a couple months earlier. That bodes ill for Brownback.

[Badger]

Brownback is at 34-55 approval, Obama is at 33-59. Considering they're almost equally as hated, I doubt Brownback's "muh Obama" strategy is going to work. At least McConnell actually has some type of connection to Obama since he'd be the potential majority leader, but Brownback trying to use it is just sad considering he's been governor for 4 years and all he has to run on is hatred of the incumbent president.

Brownback is hated certainly but he can still pull it out if Umbehr pulls enough of the anti-Brownback vote. Brownback should be trying to funnel enough of his opponents' votes to Umbehr if he wants to stand a chance. Perhaps invite him to debates or throw some money into a fake Libertarian PAC, etc. Umbehr's voters likely aren't particularly selecting Umbehr and aren't likely actual libertarians. They're just looking for a vehicle for their protest vote. Brownback can survive as long as enough of them choose a vehicle that isn't Paul Davis.

These posts sum the race up admirably. Bottom line: Brownback has a narrow line to walk hoping for re-election with a 34% approval rating just because it's Kansas and Obama is president. IMO he NEEDS to bring up his approval rating by election day, and more than a few points from Republicans coming home so they now "approve" of the guy they're voting for.

Looking at cross-tabs, he's got room to grow among the 22% of voters who are "somewhat conservative". 85% disapprove of Obama, but only 53% currently support Brownback, though 39% disapprove of his job as governor. He also has room to grow, albeit less, among the 24% of voters who are "very conservative"; currently 78% already support Brownback (and 18% disapprove of his job as gov).

Rough number crunching says if he can lose less than 20% and 10% respectively among these groups--again, despite having disapproval ratings almost twice that high for each--he'd be close. Even then he has to hope Umbehr gets at least mid-single digits to syphon off Davis to have a chance.

Even then, Davis is currently polling only 73% among the near quarter of voters who call themselves liberal (very or somewhat, mostly the latter), and is likely to consolidate support at least somewhat there. It appears Brownback has to attract at least some support from the 31% who are moderates. Only 1 in 6 support him currently, and 71% disapprove of his job as governor. Even Obama's approvals among this group are positive (46/40). He's got to sliver a couple extra percentage points from moderate Republicans who disapprove of Obama enough they'll vote for the arch-conservative governor whose job they're only "not sure" about or at least only mildly disapprove of.

Take note: Brownback's re-election depends on his making some in-roads with moderates. Make of that what you will.

[Badger]

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters

Seriously guys, give it a rest. Phil has made LOTS of bad predictions beyond Santorum.

[Badger]

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters

Seriously guys, give it a rest. Phil has made LOTS of bad predictions beyond Santorum.

No more than almost any other poster here.

I'll admit you're no worse than, say, Bandit.

Heh, or like my prediction Santorum wouldn't go anywhere in 2012? Granted, like almost everyone else I couldn't foresee that the conservative/tea party wing of the GOP would go through LITTERALLY EVERY OTHER alternative for the anti-Romney candidate to rally around before finally settling (more or less) on Santorum in the week before Iowa, but I was still wrong for sure.

[Badger]

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state .

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.

Not a "reasonable" point? He's down by two in a PPP poll, for Christ's sake. You seriously believe it's unreasonable for him to be ahead by October in Kansas? You said something earlier about someone being sad and pathetic but I think you had the target of the comment wrong...

He's "down two", but polling at 37 freaking %. As an incumbent governor. That's telling.

He's down 5 in the poll with Uhmber leaners, polling at 39%.