Members of Congress most likely to switch parties

[Badger]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

[Badger]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

Generally, it would seem that a party switch in the Senate would catch people off guard.

I don't think Shelby was so surprising.

True, but there doesn't seem to be an analogue to pre-Republican Shelby in the Senate as of 2014.

How about in the House?

[Badger]

Manchin votes with the Democrats 73% of the time and would gain nothing from changing parties.  I don't understand all this talk about him switching.

According to the New York Times, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell voted with the Democrats 78% of the time before switching to the Republicans in 1995.

West Virginia does seem like it is moving to the right at the state level much later than the rest of the non-coastal South, so Manchin becoming a Republican could be a benefit in regard to being more in tune with his state.

While Manchin becoming a Republican doesn't seem highly likely, it isn't necessarily out of the question, especially if the GOP wins the Senate after the midterm elections.

Yeah. Campbell's switch was a head scratcher.

Generally, it would seem that a party switch in the Senate would catch people off guard.

I don't think Shelby was so surprising.

True, but there doesn't seem to be an analogue to pre-Republican Shelby in the Senate as of 2014.

How about in the House?

Maybe, just maybe Blue Dog Democrat Dan Lipinski (IL-03). He opposes abortion, opposes same-sex marriage, voted against the final version of Obamacare, is against in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants, and opposes increases in immigration visas. Still, he represents a very Democratic district, and other Blue Dogs who are more conservative than him seem unlikely to switch parties. I suspect that polarization in Congress has reached a level making it unlikely we will see many party identification shifts.

You are dead right about Lipinski's district, which is why he'll never switch, as he'll be in about the same position as Cao or Djou if he ever does.