A winning Scenario for Wendy Davis-TX Governor's Race

[Badger]

I can't see Wendy Davis winning.  She's a real lightweight, in truth, who had one moment in the sun, but she does not come off as a chief executive, much less a chief executive of a state as large as Texas. 

You don't have to be a "me-too" Democrat to win in today's Texas, but you do have to appear to be up to the job.  Wendy Davis does not come off as a Governor.  I could see her pulling off winning a Congressional seat, but not a Governor's race.

Could she win the urban counties?  Probably.  Would she sweep South Texas?  Yes.  But I believe that Davis would LOSE ground in the rest of Texas.  She's put herself out there on a hot-button social issue in Texas where there are still some moderate Democrats who will not vote for someone who wages a pro-abortion filibuster. 

^ Pointless.

Actually, a pretty good analysis.

[Badger]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

And how well do 3rd party candidates usually do on election day compared to their poll numbers?

[Badger]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

And how well do 3rd party candidates usually do on election day compared to their poll numbers?

Generally not as well, altho Sardis' numbers in Virgina held up better than I expected, but that's because there were a lot of people unhappy with either major candidate, including most who ended up voting for the lesser of two weevils.

Sarvis was an extraordinary case that isn't likely to reproduce in TX next year, and even he wound up finishing at about half what he was polling a few weeks earlier.

Sice there was no link to the poll, how well did the Libertarian have to do in order for Davis to get within 6 points?