AK: Sarah Palin narrowly leads primary field

[Badger]

Palin staying out vastly improves the standing of.....Treadwell? Over Miller??

Holy $h&t, that's unexpected. I guess many of Palin's voters in the State are still basically GOP establshment voters?

Regardless, this would (surprisingly) make a Palin endorsement of Miller a very big deal. What's the likelihood of that happening? I know AK GOP politics are akin to cannibalism, so what's the history (if any) between her and Treadwell?

[Badger]

It doesn't really answer your question, but I found this article pretty informative.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/its-not-exactly-sarah-palins-alaska/

Considering the small population and the importance of door to door/personality campaigns in Alaska, I wonder how the millions of dollars the RSCC and DSCC spend will affect the race.  From everything I've heard, the amount of money they're planning to spend in Alaska is unprecedented.  I could see a lot of people getting turned off by the negativity and voting third party.  I mean it's Alaska after all.

Anyways, from my outside view, it's hard to figure out what the Treadwell/Palin relationship is like.  In the article, Treadwell says that Governor Sean Parnell is similar to Sarah Palin, but "less of a lightning rod."  However, Treadwell voted for Lisa Murkowski in the primary and general election in 2010, and Murkowski is Palin's arch-nemesis.

Huh. So Palin's endorsing Miller is hardly inconceivable, and if this poll isn't complete garbage could actually make the difference for him. Interesting....