NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[Badger]

Too many pages to read so what happened to the pro-Hasid DA?

Went down in flames by over a 2-1 margin.

[Badger]

I'm truly surprised that even with a near 50 point ass kicking, there are still broad swaths of neighborhoods--outside the Island no less--that still went for Lhota. Often by heavy margins. Much of South Brooklyn and northeastern Queens. Howard Beach still (lol).

And what ever happened to the Upper East Side supposedly being a bastion of limosine liberals? Are these are diehard Quinn and Bloomburg supporters still butthurt that their candidates got the heave ho? I assumed the numbers willing to vote for a bona fide conservative like Lhota over that would be few.

[Badger]

Too many pages to read so what happened to the pro-Hasid DA?

Went down in flames by over a 2-1 margin.

I'd really like to see a map for that race. Anyone have a blank NYC precinct map (or just a Brooklyn precinct map would work)?

I assume it looks similar to Presidential elections: Ultra-Republican in the Hasidic and Orthodox neighborhoods, moderately Republican in the rest of Southern Brooklyn (save Coney Island), ultra Dem everywhere else.

Aren't the Brooklyn Hasidim most numerous around Williamsburg? That neighborhood went heavily for BDB (though not quite up to his city-wide percentages).

Something else interesting: I'm not sure if it could be typos, but the 4 City Island precincts (island on the far eastern edge of the Bronx) all show "Others" over 10%; one close to 18% and probably averaging in the low teen's island-wide. Anyone with access to precinct result data know if that's legit? I wonder if one of the independent candidates is from there and how they got the support of over 1 in 8 residents.

[Badger]

Aren't the Brooklyn Hasidim most numerous around Williamsburg? That neighborhood went heavily for BDB (though not quite up to his city-wide percentages).

Something else interesting: I'm not sure if it could be typos, but the 4 City Island precincts (island on the far eastern edge of the Bronx) all show "Others" over 10%; one close to 18% and probably averaging in the low teen's island-wide. Anyone with access to precinct result data know if that's legit? I wonder if one of the independent candidates is from there and how they got the support of over 1 in 8 residents.

It's probably legitimate.  Adolfo Carrión, Jr., the Independence Party candidate, lives on City Island, according to his Wikipedia page.

Taa-daa!! You're on a role tonight. :-)

I was going to ask how he could live on City Island when he was Manhattan Borough President, but then I thought about the useless nature of those positions and realized no one much cares. (Or maybe he moved since stepping down).

[Badger]

De Blasio is going to win by a way bigger margin than Christie tonight.

By several points I'd say. Hence the "esque" descriptor.

By more than several points! Looks like they won't even be comparable.

And... you just may be right about de Blasio carrying the Island.

Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!

I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.

Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?

[Badger]

Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!

I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.

Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?

The middle-class white ethnic Catholic vote (largely Italian and Irish) in NYC has trended Republican in citywide races, and, in some cases, even federal races.  You see that not just on Staten Island but in places like Howard Beach, Whitestone, Rockaway Park and Breezy Point in Queens, Throggs Neck, Country Club and Woodlawn in the Bronx and the parts of Southern Brooklyn that aren't Jewish or Russian like Bay Ridge.

Yeah, but this election actually reversed something of a Democratic trend in SI for mayoral elections. Even Bill Thompson ran only 17.5% behind his citywide % 4 years ago, and it hasn't gone minus 30% for a Democratic candidate in 20 years. It's hard to believe there's a mid-40's ceiling there for Democrats running for mayor when even Obama narrowly won Richmond County (Sandy's effect duly noted, but the point remains the same).

I still suspect there's something else at work here.